112
FXUS64 KBMX 051947
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
247 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

A boundary will move southeast through the day today, initiating
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening.
Instabilities through the afternoon will be around 3000 j/kg in a
few areas, with shear around 30-40 kts. Strong storms are expected
with a few storms approaching severe if they can tap into the
right parameters. PW values will be near max for this time of year
so any activity will drop high rainfall rates.

Tonight, instability weakens so any convection that lingers
after sunset should be more of a shower producer with isolated
thunder. The boundary is expected to push south through the night
with northwest flow setting up in areas north of the boundary,
bringing drier air to the northwestern half of the state at least.
Saturday, models differ on where that boundary will stall, which
will then determine how much coverage will occur across the state
through the afternoon. Right now, will highlight areas south of
I20 to have a chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Areas
north of I20 should have plenty of dry air from the northwesterly
flow to remain rain free.

A Heat Advisory has been issued for the afternoon Saturday in the
far southeast. If the boundary can make it farther Saturday
morning than current models anticipate, counties included may need
to be adjusted.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Deep tropical moisture will return to central Alabama through much
of the long term portion of the forecast. Having said that, I do
have a hard time buying into the daily likely to categorical POPs
that model blend based guidance suggests each afternoon. I`ve
tempered the POPs a bit each afternoon to a more climatologically
realistic POP regime. Otherwise, the hot and humid conditions
will continue. And we`ll have to watch where what will eventually
become the remnants of Beryl end up.

/61/

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Guidance progresses a front southward across the Deep South Saturday
night, suppressing an area of tropical air characterized by PWs 2.0-
2.4", to areas south of I-20. Meanwhile, TC Beryl is forecast to
emerge into the southwestern Gulf while an upper-level low swings
west toward the Carolina Coast - both combating/weakening the
ridge. Drier air situated to the north will coincide with surface
dewpoints in the mid to uppers 60s. This effectively shifts greatest
heat index values (near advisory criteria) along and south of I-85
for Sunday afternoon, and this moisture will also continue to foster
diurnal showers and thunderstorms with best coverage south of I-20.
The weakened presence of ridging appears to flip back early next
week with medium-range guidance suggesting low- to mid-level height
rises (between TC Beryl and the upper low). Tropospheric moisture
begins to spread northward toward the Tennessee Valley once again.
The increase in moisture/instability led to a more uniform 50-60% PoP
for Monday and Tuesday afternoons despite forcing details becoming
less clear. PoPs are on the decrease thereafter as the forecast
becomes a little more contingent upon where Beryl decides to go.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
area today through this evening. Scattered to numerous convection
is moving through the state through the afternoon, with models
hinting at redevelopment late afternoon and into the early
evening. PW values are high so any activity over a TAF site will
likely drop IFR or LIFR visibilities, though only included MVFR in
TEMPO groups for now. Tomorrow, the boundary should be far enough
south that only KEET and KMGM have a chance to see activity. The
rest of the area should have northwest flow and drier air.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the period, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. No high
wind or low humidity impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  92  69  93 /  50  20  20  40
Anniston    72  92  72  92 /  50  40  20  50
Birmingham  72  92  74  93 /  50  30  20  40
Tuscaloosa  74  94  74  93 /  50  30  10  40
Calera      73  91  74  93 /  50  40  20  40
Auburn      73  90  75  90 /  60  60  40  60
Montgomery  74  92  74  93 /  60  60  30  60
Troy        73  93  74  92 /  60  70  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-
Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-
Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-
Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...24