823
FXUS64 KBMX 070851
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
351 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024

A weak front associated with a weak surface low is right along
the I-20 corridor this morning. At the same time Beryl is to our
southwest. Beryl is moving toward the northwest right now. There
will be a convergence zone just north of the outer band subsidence
zone that will merge with the frontal zone this afternoon. Both the
ARW and FV3 CAMs are picking up on this area, but have different
placements. The consensus with the rest of the models is across
out southern half of the area. Therefore will stay with likely
rain chances across the south and isolated to scattered across the
north. As for the excessive heat, it looks like the areas to see
the heat advisory criteria of 105 plus will be in much of the same
area as yesterday, so will continue the heat advisory as
advertised, with readings of 105 to 108. Much of the precipitation
will decrease after 6z tonight with only an isolated shower
possible overnight.

On Monday, we will once again be in a favorable pattern for wet
conditions, however the outer subsidence zone of Beryl may have a
bigger impact that the global models are supporting. There are some
discrepancies amongst models and guidance. We will be in more of a
southerly flow on Monday, so hit and miss showers/storms are
certainly not of the picture, but will we get the likely/definite
coverage that guidance is showing. For now will stay with the
persistence forecast as the airmass does not really change, but will
not be surprised if guidance decreases over the next few runs. As
for temperatures, we will be close to heat advisory criteria again.
If we have less rain then temperatures may be a degree or two warmer
and easily meet criteria. Will revisit this during the afternoon
update or in 24 hours from now.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024

Beryl remains on track to impact areas to our west on Tuesday
after moving inland from the Texas Gulf Coast. This will coincide
with a moisture-rich environment spanning the entire Deep South,
though guidance has recently trended somewhat lower with PWs.
Nonetheless, we should still see a good scattering of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday given height falls associated
with Beryl to our west, and there will be mesoscale
considerations that could result in locally higher/lesser coverage
of convection. The latest NHC forecast (and associated guidance)
depicts a more transient evolution of Beryl across the Lower
Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday as its circulation merges
with a trough to the north. It now appears to be well on its way
toward the Ohio Valley by Wednesday as an open wave trough aloft
with post tropical cyclone characteristics. As such, impacts to
Central AL appear to be little to none at this time, but we`ll
monitor for any potential changes since we`re on the eastern side
of the circulation where it`s not uncommon to see at least
isolated flooding & tornado threats establish. Latest forecasts
from SPC is currently focused on areas to our northwest & north
where guidance is now placing the best supportive kinematic
parameters.

After Beryl moves off to our north Tuesday night into Wednesday, a
drier, more stable air mass is forecast to move into much of the
Tennessee Valley along with a slight reduction in temperatures -
it`s a cold front. Thus, we`ll return to a more routine summer
forecast that will continue through the end of the period.
Unfortunately PoPs will remain on the lower side until a more
substantial increase in moisture can occur, and this may take
several days according to latest medium range.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024

While the extent of the low clouds and patchy will not be as
widespread as this time 24 hours ago, we are going to have some.
In fact ANB and most likely ASN are already LIFR/IFR. Added in
some tempo MVFR across the north and predominant in MGM. After 14
to 15z those should burn off and then a close repeat to Saturday
with scattered to numerous showers and storms in the afternoon.
Light winds the whole period.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the period, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. No high
wind or low humidity impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  71  94  72 /  30  30  60  20
Anniston    92  74  92  75 /  50  40  60  20
Birmingham  93  74  94  75 /  40  30  60  20
Tuscaloosa  93  74  93  75 /  40  30  60  20
Calera      93  74  93  75 /  50  40  60  20
Auburn      91  74  91  75 /  70  50  70  20
Montgomery  94  74  93  74 /  70  50  70  20
Troy        94  72  93  73 /  70  50  70  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-
Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...16