206
FXUS64 KBMX 081129
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
629 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2024

The weak front continues to meander around central Alabama.
Synoptically, the front stretches from Oklahoma to Alabama then back
to eastern portions of North Carolina. Looking at more of a
mesoscale environment the front is north of the Shelby County
Airport but south of Birmingham Metro. The differences are about 5
to 8 degrees in the dewpoint readings. At the same time Beryl is to
our southwest and quickly approaching the coastline near Houston.
Beryl is moving toward the north-northwest right now and will be
moving inland before daybreak.

We will be a favorable pattern for wet conditions over the next 2
days. The one caveat to this afternoon, would a dry zone that may
enter the southwest thanks to the outer subsidence zone of Beryl.
Southerly flow riding up into the frontal boundary should help
increase coverage just to the north of this zone. North of the
frontal boundary hit and miss showers/storms will be possible just
with less coverage. Since it appears that most of the rain will hold
off until the afternoon, we may see the heat advisory criteria
across a good portion of the area.

Most of the showers and storms will dissipate after sunset, but
there could just a few lingering showers and storms early. As we
move into Tuesday, the remnants of Beryl will slide northwest of the
area, leaving a feeder convergence zone across Alabama. This zone
will really increase the PWATS over the state and showers/storms
will become widespread across the area. The good news is that cloud
cover should keep the area just below criteria. In fact if the rain
moves in earlier then the highs have a potential to bust based on
coverage.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2024

Beryl will quickly advance northeastward across the Ohio Valley
Wednesday morning as a post tropical cyclone. An associated cold
front should be positioned southward across Central Alabama by
then, bringing a west-to-east advancement of cooler, drier air
that will effectively begin a period of lower rain chances that
will dominate much of the long-term forecast. Temperature-wise,
Wednesday will be the coolest day, and Thursday through Sunday
will generally feature a warming trend as low-level ridging
strengthens across the Southeast. Tropospheric moisture begins a
slow recovery this weekend, so low-end diurnal PoPs (20-30%) were
implemented for Sunday. Thus, no significant improvement is
expected for local drought. In fact, temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s toward the end of the period will likely worsen drought
conditions. Dewpoints in the 60s will keep heat indices below
advisory criteria for the period - so it`s basically a mixture of
good and bad news.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2024

Generally VFR conditions outside of the afternoon thunderstorms
expected at most sites. There is some fog this morning but will
only mention at TCL through 13z. Most of the precipitation will
be between 18 and 02z with the most likely 20z to 00z. Low clouds
and patchy fog once again overnight.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through tomorrow, with
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Drier
air will move into the area on Wednesday which will provide lower
afternoon RH values for the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  73  94  72 /  40  30  60  30
Anniston    94  76  92  74 /  50  30  70  20
Birmingham  96  77  93  74 /  60  40  70  30
Tuscaloosa  95  76  91  73 /  60  40  80  20
Calera      95  75  92  74 /  60  40  70  20
Auburn      92  76  92  75 /  60  40  70  20
Montgomery  95  76  94  75 /  60  40  80  20
Troy        94  74  93  74 /  60  30  80  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...16