Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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957 FXUS64 KBMX 062109 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 409 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024 Quasi-stationary front was located from near Mt Cheaha to the southern Birmingham Metro to near Demopolis. Showers and thunderstorms initiated near this boundary early this afternoon. Outflow boundaries from these storms has moved both north and south. Therefore, have increased pops to categorical for a large part of the area the remainder of the afternoon. Also increased pops early this evening south. MUCAPE values range from 2000-4000 and some wind shear was showing up today around 20kts. Lapse rates are on the poor side due to a warm column and precipitable water values around 2.3 inches. Downdraft CAPE is not too impressive except maybe for far southeastern areas. Therefore, the stronger storms may produce a brief wind gust. The main concern will be torrential downpours. Some locations may receive 1-2 inches in a short period of time with a maximum of 4 inches or so. Can not rule out some minor flooding episodes through early evening. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for areas southeast through Sunday. With highs reaching the mid 90s, heat indices did touch the 105 to 110 mark. The thunderstorm outflows have cooled things down a bit, but muggy and warm to hot conditions continue through dark. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024 A boundary draped over the state is allowing thunderstorms to develop, with continued development expected through the afternoon and evening. Though scattered showers could develop north of this boundary, the main focus should be the southern half of the state where instabilities will be around 3000 to 3500 J/kg. Winds will be light, so any storm won`t be encouraged to move quickly. With PW values max for this time of year, and light steering winds, localized flooding may be possible in any slow moving and training thunderstorms. Damaging winds are possible in any stronger thunderstorms as well. Tonight, activity should weaken and decrease in coverage through the night, with fog development possible overnight. Models are not holding on to this boundary moving any large distance through the next 24 hours, so scattered to numerous activity is possible again across the southern half of the state Sunday late morning through the late afternoon. With the northern half of the area expected to be under northwest flow (being north of the boundary), will leave the Heat Advisory valid for the southeastern counties now through Sunday evening. If the boundary does meander, the counties in the Advisory might need to be adjusted. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024 Main concern through the long term portion of the forecast will be watching what the eventual remnants of "Beryl" do. Latest official forecast has the remnant low moving toward the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, and the computer models are coming into better agreement in moving the (weakening) low northeast after that. Central Alabama will remain in a deep moist tropical regime, characterized by high precipitable water values, through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected early in the week, with peak convective coverage coming in the late afternoons. Interestingly, as mentioned in the previous long term discussion, "Beryl`s" remnants may actually cause a bit of a dry slot across our area on Wednesday -- which is currently depicted in the medium range models. This could actually lead to fewer but stronger thunderstorms in this time frame. Beyond Wednesday, forecast uncertainly increases and the forecast returns to a largely climo- flavored variety. /61/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. KEET should be the northern most extent of the majority of the activity, with only VCSH included in TAF sites north of KEET through the afternoon. Any thunderstorm or strong shower that moves over a TAF site could produce IFR visibilities due to a high level of low level moisture. Fog development is possible overnight, and have included mention in KEET, KANB, and KTCL for now. Confidence is low in intensity of fog, so left MVFR visibilities for now to show the trend. Scattered convection is expected again on Sunday. Note: AMD NOT SKED at KASN due to missing ceilings. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the period, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. No high wind or low humidity impacts are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 94 72 94 / 10 40 20 50 Anniston 72 91 74 93 / 20 50 30 50 Birmingham 74 94 75 93 / 20 40 20 50 Tuscaloosa 75 92 75 94 / 20 50 20 50 Calera 73 94 75 93 / 20 50 20 50 Auburn 73 90 75 91 / 60 70 40 50 Montgomery 75 93 74 93 / 60 70 30 50 Troy 74 93 73 92 / 60 80 40 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon- Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM..../61/ AVIATION...24