186
FXUS64 KBMX 070625
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
125 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 801 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

A large part of the surface based instability has been used up
early this evening. A few showers remain in the far southeast and
the far southwest. The forecast trend of decreasing coverage to
isolated by 9 pm looks good. There are plenty of mid and high
clouds over Central Alabama with the cumulus near the storms.
These clouds will slowly thin out overnight.

It appears that the quasi-stationary front was located near I-59
this evening. Surface dew points remain in the 70s south of the
front and actually dry out quite a bit north into the mid 60s.
Overnight lows should be a tad cooler north. Will monitor the
possible low cloud or patchy fog development late tonight.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

A boundary draped over the state is allowing thunderstorms to
develop, with continued development expected through the afternoon
and evening. Though scattered showers could develop north of this
boundary, the main focus should be the southern half of the state
where instabilities will be around 3000 to 3500 J/kg. Winds will
be light, so any storm won`t be encouraged to move quickly. With
PW values max for this time of year, and light steering winds,
localized flooding may be possible in any slow moving and training
thunderstorms. Damaging winds are possible in any stronger
thunderstorms as well.

Tonight, activity should weaken and decrease in coverage
through the night, with fog development possible overnight. Models
are not holding on to this boundary moving any large distance
through the next 24 hours, so scattered to numerous activity is
possible again across the southern half of the state Sunday late
morning through the late afternoon.

With the northern half of the area expected to be under northwest
flow (being north of the boundary), will leave the Heat Advisory
valid for the southeastern counties now through Sunday evening.
If the boundary does meander, the counties in the Advisory might
need to be adjusted.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Main concern through the long term portion of the forecast will
be watching what the eventual remnants of "Beryl" do. Latest
official forecast has the remnant low moving toward the confluence
of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, and the computer models are
coming into better agreement in moving the (weakening) low
northeast after that. Central Alabama will remain in a deep moist
tropical regime, characterized by high precipitable water values,
through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected early in the
week, with peak convective coverage coming in the late afternoons.
Interestingly, as mentioned in the previous long term discussion,
"Beryl`s" remnants may actually cause a bit of a dry slot across
our area on Wednesday -- which is currently depicted in the medium
range models. This could actually lead to fewer but stronger
thunderstorms in this time frame. Beyond Wednesday, forecast
uncertainly increases and the forecast returns to a largely climo-
flavored variety.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2024

While the extent of the low clouds and patchy will not be as
widespread as this time 24 hours ago, we are going to have some.
In fact ANB and most likely ASN are already LIFR/IFR. Added in
some tempo MVFR across the north and predominant in MGM. After 14
to 15z those should burn off and then a close repeat to Saturday
with scattered to numerous showers and storms in the afternoon.
Light winds the whole period.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the period, with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. No high
wind or low humidity impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  71  94  72 /  30  30  60  20
Anniston    92  74  92  75 /  50  40  60  20
Birmingham  93  74  94  75 /  40  30  60  20
Tuscaloosa  93  74  93  75 /  40  30  60  20
Calera      93  74  93  75 /  50  40  60  20
Auburn      91  74  91  75 /  70  50  70  20
Montgomery  94  74  93  74 /  70  50  70  20
Troy        94  72  93  73 /  70  50  70  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-
Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...16