Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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412 FXUS64 KBMX 021936 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024 The strong, mid-level ridge is centered over the Lower MS River Valley while, at the surface, high pressure is focused along the East Coast extending south into the Mid-Atlantic region. There`s north-northeasterly flow aloft and east-southeasterly flow in the lower levels. The low-level flow is providing a moist, humid airmass which is resulting in mid 70s dewpoints, and a cu field over much of the area. Temperatures have remained in the 80s across the east, but will warm into the 90s in the west where heat indices will approach 105F this afternoon and again tomorrow as the moist airmass will still be in place. There`s weak surface convergence associated with the stalled front to our south, and showers have developed over southern Georgia. This activity could slowly drift into southeast Alabama this afternoon, and may reach southeastern portions of the forecast area. Muggy conditions are expected overnight with lows in the mid 70s. Rain chances look higher tomorrow as low-level moisture continues to advect inland through the southerly flow, but the greatest likelihood of seeing a shower or storm will be across the southern half of the area. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 222 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024 Looking at the latest data, forecast thinking is in line with the previous forecast, which is detailed below: 89^GSatterwhite Previous long-term discussion: (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024 Key messages: - Heat indices at or above 105 degrees are expected across much of Central Alabama on Independence Day, along with scattered afternoon showers and storms. Make sure to stay hydrated and be prepared to move indoors if storms approach your outdoor activities. - A transition to a wetter pattern will take place Friday through the weekend, with an eventual decrease in heat indices depending on the coverage of showers and storms each day. Strong subtropical ridging initially over Central Alabama will gradually weaken and move eastward to the East Coast through the period, in response to a deepening trough over the north-central CONUS resulting in a weakness in the ridge developing in the south-central CONUS. Ridging remains in place on Independence Day, however, but moisture will increase enough for scattered afternoon showers and storms across all of Central Alabama. Some isolated showers and storms may linger into the evening, diminishing after sunset. Heat indices outside of convection should be at or above 105 across much of Central Alabama. On Friday a seasonally strong shortwave will be moving through the Midwest while a cold front sinks southeastward into the Mid-South. The southern fringe of the westerlies associated with the trough will move into the northern half of Central Alabama. In response to these features showers and storms should increase in coverage especially across the northern half of Central Alabama. Dew points will remain high but temperatures will be dependent on how quickly storms develop/move into the area, which will determine where heat indices reach 105 degrees. A pattern change will be in place by this weekend into early next week with southwest flow aloft ahead of troughing over the Central CONUS. A frontal boundary will remained stalled across the area with above average rain chances along and southeast of it. This should provide some relief from the higher heat indices, though they may still reach 105 in some of the southern counties depending on convection. Meanwhile Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to weaken to a tropical storm by the time it reaches the southwestern Gulf on Saturday. There is quite a bit of ensemble spread regarding whether it will continue moving westward into Mexico, or get pulled northward by the trough into the northwestern Gulf. If the further east solutions happen to verify, it`s plausible that some tropical moisture could wrap around the ridge towards us. Regardless, a wetter and less oppressive pattern looks to be setting up by next week. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024 Moist, easterly flow has produced a low-level cloud deck across much of the area today. Ceilings will rise through the afternoon, and the clouds should mix apart somewhat. Expect VFR conditions to return within the next couple of hours. It`s likely that low ceilings will redevelop again early tomorrow morning as the flow remains from the east, so expect MVFR/IFR conditions to return around 12-14Z then follow a similar trend of improvement through late morning. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and humid conditions are expected over the coming days. Isolated showers and storms are possible today near and south of the Interstate 85 corridor. Scattered showers and storms are possible each afternoon and evening heading into the weekend. No issues from RHs. 20-foot winds will average less than 10 mph, from the southeast to southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 95 72 94 / 10 20 10 40 Anniston 74 93 75 94 / 10 30 10 40 Birmingham 76 95 76 95 / 10 30 10 40 Tuscaloosa 77 95 76 96 / 10 30 10 40 Calera 76 94 76 93 / 10 30 10 40 Auburn 75 90 75 91 / 10 50 20 50 Montgomery 75 93 76 95 / 20 60 20 50 Troy 73 92 73 94 / 30 70 20 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Barbour-Blount-Bullock-Coosa-Elmore-Jefferson-Macon- Marion-Montgomery-Pike-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Walker-Winston. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar- Lowndes-Marengo-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...86