Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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073 FXUS64 KBMX 040839 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 339 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 250 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2024 Upper level ridging remains centered over the Deep South this morning, with a surface ridge extending southward along the Atlantic Coast, angling around the southern end of the Appalachians. Well to our north, within broad troughing across the northern CONUS, a shortwave is moving out of the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. Today, the shortwave moves into the Upper Mississippi River Valley with its associated surface low strengthening over the Upper Midwest. Upper level ridging over the Deep South begins to shift southward as troughing expands southward through the Plains. Not much change in airmass is expected for Central Alabama, from yesterday. For your Fourth of July celebrations, expect highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Heat indices will range from 100-106F, and a Heat Advisory will remain in place. With slightly lower heights over the area, isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon, with coverage decreasing with sunset. As the trough moves across the Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow, a front will approach the area from the northwest Friday morning. With PWs around 2.5inches, decreasing mid level heights, and better, although still weak, winds aloft, more widespread showers and storms are expected. As moisture pools south of the front, some locations could reach heat indices of 105-107F briefly before rain provides some relief. Model trends show less of the area hitting 105F on Friday, and with the uncertainty with rainfall timing, will hold off on expanding Heat Advisory for now. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2024 An amplified pattern for July will persist through the forecast period, with a trough over the north-central CONUS downstream of a strong ridge over the western CONUS. A weakness will extend down into the south-central CONUS, with Hurricane Beryl eventually spinning down in the Rio Grande vicinity. A subtropical ridge will persist over the eastern Gulf and southeast Atlantic coast, though not as strong as it has been recently. This will place Central Alabama under moist southwesterly flow aloft. Most of the guidance has been trending further south with the frontal passage Saturday though some guidance has recently trended back the other way. Therefore, did not make any big changes to the forecast over the weekend. A still warm but dry air mass will be in place north of the front, while south of the front a tropical-like air mass will persists with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Another heat advisory may be needed for some of the southeast counties Saturday depending on the progression of the front. The front should lift back to the north by Monday with the tropical-like air mass that has already been in place returning to all of Central Alabama. This combined with weak waves moving through the base of the trough should result in above average chances of showers and storms next week, though one wild card will be if the ridge over the eastern Gulf ends up being stronger than currently forecast. The increased coverage of showers and storms should help keep heat indices just below 105. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2024 A shower or two remains across portions of southeast Central Alabama tonight, with cigs between 3k-5kft. However, conditions at all forecast terminals are VFR. There is a chance of lower cigs around sunrise, mainly across the far south, with heights falling to 4k-5kft at MGM. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected Thursday by mid day through the afternoon. For now, have included PROB30s at all terminals. Winds will be light, less than 6kts, through the forecast period. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and humid conditions continue today and tomorrow. Scattered showers and storms are possible today, with more widespread coverage expected on Friday as a front moves into the region. With increased moisture, minimum RH values remain above 50 percent. 20-foot winds from the southwest to west will average less than 10 mph through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 95 74 93 71 / 30 20 80 50 Anniston 93 76 92 74 / 40 20 80 60 Birmingham 93 77 93 75 / 30 20 80 50 Tuscaloosa 94 76 93 74 / 40 20 80 50 Calera 92 77 92 75 / 30 20 80 50 Auburn 91 76 92 75 / 50 20 70 50 Montgomery 94 76 94 75 / 30 20 70 50 Troy 94 74 93 73 / 40 20 70 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes- Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell- Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker- Winston. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....32/Davis AVIATION...14