559
FXUS64 KBMX 051147
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
647 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Upper level ridging is pushed southward today, becoming oriented
west to east along the Gulf Coast, as a trough moves southeastward
through the Mid Mississippi River Valley. A surface front and
convective complex associated with the trough is moving through
Arkansas this morning. Locally, a few patchy clouds show up on
satellite, but otherwise, conditions are quiet and muggy.

The front and line of storms will continue to move east southeast
this morning into the Tennessee Valley. Moisture pooling is
expected ahead of the front, with dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s. Before rain arrives/convection develops, expect heat indices
to warm into the 103-107F range across the northwest. The Heat
Advisory has been expanded to include the five northwestern
counties in Central Alabama.

The line of storms will move into northwest Alabama around mid
morning, and likely be slightly weaker/more broken than it
currently is. However, the combination of the boundary, with
daytime heating and falling upper level heights, expect
redevelopment to occur with numerous to widespread shower and
storm coverage through the afternoon. Storms will produce heavy
rainfall as PWs are around 2.5inches, but severe storms are
unlikely. The front will slow/stall across the area, leaving a
boundary for isolated to scattered convection overnight and into
Saturday morning. Expect rain coverage to increase by Saturday
afternoon along and south of the front, roughly south of the I-20
corridor. Drier air works into northern portions of the area,
behind the front, and will likely need a Heat Advisory for only
the southeastern counties.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Guidance progresses a front southward across the Deep South Saturday
night, suppressing an area of tropical air characterized by PWs 2.0-
2.4", to areas south of I-20. Meanwhile, TC Beryl is forecast to
emerge into the southwestern Gulf while an upper-level low swings
west toward the Carolina Coast - both combating/weakening the
ridge. Drier air situated to the north will coincide with surface
dewpoints in the mid to uppers 60s. This effectively shifts greatest
heat index values (near advisory criteria) along and south of I-85
for Sunday afternoon, and this moisture will also continue to foster
diurnal showers and thunderstorms with best coverage south of I-20.
The weakened presence of ridging appears to flip back early next
week with medium-range guidance suggesting low- to mid-level height
rises (between TC Beryl and the upper low). Tropospheric moisture
begins to spread northward toward the Tennessee Valley once again.
The increase in moisture/instability led to a more uniform 50-60% PoP
for Monday and Tuesday afternoons despite forcing details becoming
less clear. PoPs are on the decrease thereafter as the forecast
becomes a little more contingent upon where Beryl decides to go.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024

Localized LIFR/IFR clouds and fog are impacting several terminals
this morning, as low level moisture and lift increase ahead of an
approaching front. Clouds and fog will improve to VFR over the
next hours.

Showers and storms will approach from the northwest, with activity
nearing TCL and BHM by 15Z. Expect widespread rain coverage
through the rest of the day, with impacts at all terminals. Cigs
could fall to MVFR with convection, but generally cigs will be in
the 5-6kft range. Storms could produce heavy rainfall, reducing
vis at times. Outside of a localized strong wind gust associated
with a storm, winds will be at or less than 6kts.

The front will slow and stall across the area, with isolated to
scattered showers and storms possible through the end of the
period. Expect MVFR cigs late in the forecast period.


14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the day on Sunday.
Widespread rain and storms are expected today as a front moves
into the region, and stalls over the area through Saturday. With
increased moisture, minimum RH values remain above 50 percent
today, and above 40 percent Saturday and Sunday. 20-foot winds
from the southwest to west today will become northerly Saturday,
but will average less than 10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  71  92  68 /  80  60  40  10
Anniston    91  74  91  71 /  80  60  50  20
Birmingham  94  74  92  72 /  80  60  40  10
Tuscaloosa  94  74  92  72 /  70  60  40  10
Calera      93  75  92  73 /  80  60  50  10
Auburn      92  75  92  75 /  70  60  80  30
Montgomery  93  74  94  73 /  70  60  80  30
Troy        95  74  93  73 /  70  60  80  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-
Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-
Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...14