Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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327 FXUS64 KBMX 061118 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 618 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024 A weak front associated with the trough over the region will move south today through 1/2 to 2/3 of the area. This system will stall across the southern zones and then begin to lift back on Sunday. Look for highs to be low to mid 90s across the area. However dewpoints will be less in the north so the Heat Advisory will be for generally the southeast. Since conditions really do not change much at all on Sunday, went ahead and extended the advisory through Sunday 9 PM. As for rain coverage look for the highest chances to be in the south and southeast ahead of the weak front. Plenty of instability will be available to support thunderstorms each day. With weak flow the storms will be slow to move, so localized flooding/ponding will be possible. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024 Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast on Monday. This will coincide with southerly/southwesterly low- to mid- level flow which will support moisture advection from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Tennessee Valley. As such, PWs will increase to near 2.0" or above area-wide Monday afternoon, complementing diurnal instability which should foster scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as temperatures increase to the low 90s. Ample moisture will linger in the area on Tuesday, and potentially increase further, as Beryl moves into eastern Texas. Some guidance depicts PWs rising as high as 2.5". As a result, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast once again for Tuesday afternoon, particularly as heights begin a slow decrease in association with Beryl devolving to an open-wave trough to our west. PoPs are ~70% for Tue. Thereafter, Beryl should transition to the northeast, moving toward the TN and OH Valleys. PoPs are on a slight decrease (still ~50%) owing to the potential for a "dry slot" depicted in guidance Wed afternoon. Nonetheless, with Beryl in the region, we`ll need to watch other supportive factors for local impacts. The overall scenario supports locally heavy rainfall in strongest showers/storms, and there`s some signal for low-topped, rotating thunderstorms in the region Tue/Wed should low- to mid-level wind fields east of Beryl`s circulation remain intact and strong enough. Just something to keep an eye on. Beryl`s remnants lift to our north thereafter, and it`s a routine summer forecast for Thu/Fri. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024 Low ceilings and some patchy fog are in place across most of the area but should burn off by 14 to 16z. The airmass remains moist through the day today, so scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible. Included Prob30 at all sites after 19 to 21z, but the highest chances will be at MGM this afternoon. Showers may linger to around 3z before dissipating. Will need to monitor the trends and see if the low clouds and fog will be possible again. The pattern supports low clouds once again at MGM but guidance is holding off for now. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... The region remains amidst a period of hot and humid weather that is forecast to continue the next several days. This will provide daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with elevated humidity levels. Winds generally remain light and variable through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 69 94 72 / 30 10 30 20 Anniston 93 72 92 74 / 50 20 40 30 Birmingham 93 74 93 75 / 40 10 40 20 Tuscaloosa 93 72 92 74 / 40 20 40 20 Calera 93 74 92 75 / 50 20 50 30 Auburn 91 74 91 74 / 70 40 70 40 Montgomery 93 74 92 74 / 70 40 70 40 Troy 93 73 92 73 / 70 40 70 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Dallas- Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....40/Sizemore AVIATION...16