477
FXUS63 KBIS 022029
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
329 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this evening.

- There is a chance (40%) for showers and thunderstorms
  Wednesday, mainly in the west. An isolated strong storm is
  possible, mainly in the far south.

- The chance for showers and thunderstorms on Independence Day
  is 70 percent across all of western and central North Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Temperatures this week will remain near average (upper 70s,
lower 80s) with daily chances of non-severe showers and
thunderstorms.


Currently a stacked low sits north of Minnesota in Canada.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed in the cyclonic
flow in the Dakotas around the low. A few of them have some
lightning strikes with them, otherwise expect mostly quick shots
of rain and gusty winds. More showers will likely move in from
Montana this evening. These will continue until the diurnal
heating relaxes around sunset. With a surface high pressure to
our southwest, skies will also clear overnight and remain mostly
sunny Wednesday until the evening when an open wave moves
through aloft. Most CAMs have popcorn storms like this
afternoon. There will be more CAPE available, around 1000 J/kg,
with 30kts of shear in the far southwest. So there is a small
chance a storm could go severe for a short time in the southwest
or the far south central tier of counties in the early evening.
The SPC has a marginal for Bowman, Adams, and Sioux Counties.
However the chances seem to be very low.

Independence Day could be fairly wet during the morning and
afternoon. The NBM has 60-80 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms, but they are looking to be popcorn showers once
again. If you try to keep your outside plans be sky aware,
especially with lightning. Lightning can strike several miles
away from the storm. After 7pm CT, the chances for storm
decreases greatly so firework shows may still happen.

Another stacked low looks to form over Nebraska and move into
Minnesota Thursday night into Friday. This will bring our next
chance (30%) of showers and thunderstorms. Then again Saturday
as a clipper system clips the state. A slight shortwave then
moves through Sunday bringing another chance (30%) to the north
and east. The start of next week looks dry as a general ridging
pattern will be over the western half of the CONUS. Temperatures
look to remain in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Mainly VFR with scattered to broken cumulus clouds. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are around most terminals this
afternoon then skies clear around sunset. Winds will gust near
30kts from the west until sunset.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith