176
FXUS63 KBIS 080850
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
350 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms
  during the day today across eastern and portions of central
  North Dakota. Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday will mainly be
  over north central and eastern North Dakota.

- A warming trend is expected this week, with widespread highs
  in the 90s likely on Friday.

- The middle of this week will be dry, with chances for
  thunderstorms returning later in the week and for next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Currently, northerly flow aloft over the Northern Plains with a
departing mid level trough over the Western Great Lakes region
and strong ridging over the west coast. Weak surface high
pressure building east into the Dakotas early this morning,
results in a mostly clear sky and a light westerly surface flow
across western and central North Dakota.

For today, north/northwest flow aloft will be in place with the
aforementioned weak sfc high slowly drifting east across the
region. Daytime instability coupled with a weak embedded impulse
moving southeast across central and eastern ND will result in
chances for showers and thunderstorms later this morning and
through the day over my central and eastern counties. High
temperatures look to be similar to Sunday, mid 70s to lower 80s
and light winds.

Strong upper level ridge over the west coast will develop
farther inland into the Intermountain West Tuesday, maintaining
a north/northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains. Models/NBM
have maintained low POPs over my north central and eastern
counties Tuesday aft/eve, with models indicating a bit higher
afternoon instability to around 2000 J/kg. In addition, both the
GFS and EC operational models show a decent embedded S/WV
pushing south across eastern ND mid/late afternoon through the
evening, along with a pocket of 35-40kts 0-6km shear along to
east of Highway 83. Thus, don`t trust northwest flow aloft, as
it appears we may have a decent setup for a few stronger storms
far north central and east during this period. Will continue to
monitor trends. Most of western and central North Dakota will
remain dry however, in addition to daytime highs warming well
into the 80s.

Upper ridge broadens and expands into the Rockies mid to late
week, centered over the Great Basin with a quasi-zonal flow
over the Northern Plains. This results in continued warming
temperatures, favored to be well above normal with highs
Thursday into next weekend forecast in the mid/upper 80s to
mid/upper 90s. Friday still appears to be the warmest day, when
most locations will see 90s for highs.

While we should be mainly dry during the middle of the week, the
flow pattern developing after Thursday coupled with the upper
jet aloft will result in increasing potential for thunderstorms
(daytime or nighttime) as embedded waves ride over the ridge and
across our region, interacting with likely robust instability.
NBM maintains slight chance POPs (20%) Fri-Sun and into the
following week. The CSU machine learning also still indicates
some low severe probabilities during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z period. Chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorms return to portions of central
and eastern North Dakota during the day Monday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH