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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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477 FXUS63 KBIS 022029 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 329 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this evening. - There is a chance (40%) for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, mainly in the west. An isolated strong storm is possible, mainly in the far south. - The chance for showers and thunderstorms on Independence Day is 70 percent across all of western and central North Dakota. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Temperatures this week will remain near average (upper 70s, lower 80s) with daily chances of non-severe showers and thunderstorms. Currently a stacked low sits north of Minnesota in Canada. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed in the cyclonic flow in the Dakotas around the low. A few of them have some lightning strikes with them, otherwise expect mostly quick shots of rain and gusty winds. More showers will likely move in from Montana this evening. These will continue until the diurnal heating relaxes around sunset. With a surface high pressure to our southwest, skies will also clear overnight and remain mostly sunny Wednesday until the evening when an open wave moves through aloft. Most CAMs have popcorn storms like this afternoon. There will be more CAPE available, around 1000 J/kg, with 30kts of shear in the far southwest. So there is a small chance a storm could go severe for a short time in the southwest or the far south central tier of counties in the early evening. The SPC has a marginal for Bowman, Adams, and Sioux Counties. However the chances seem to be very low. Independence Day could be fairly wet during the morning and afternoon. The NBM has 60-80 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, but they are looking to be popcorn showers once again. If you try to keep your outside plans be sky aware, especially with lightning. Lightning can strike several miles away from the storm. After 7pm CT, the chances for storm decreases greatly so firework shows may still happen. Another stacked low looks to form over Nebraska and move into Minnesota Thursday night into Friday. This will bring our next chance (30%) of showers and thunderstorms. Then again Saturday as a clipper system clips the state. A slight shortwave then moves through Sunday bringing another chance (30%) to the north and east. The start of next week looks dry as a general ridging pattern will be over the western half of the CONUS. Temperatures look to remain in the lower 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Mainly VFR with scattered to broken cumulus clouds. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are around most terminals this afternoon then skies clear around sunset. Winds will gust near 30kts from the west until sunset. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Smith