506
FXUS61 KBGM 061846
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
246 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and still somewhat humid this evening, with some scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly in Central NY. Mostly clear and
seasonably mild overnight with valley fog as a surface high pressure
system moves overhead. Dry, warm and sunny weather prevails on
Sunday with slightly lower humidity levels. Monday looks to be the
hottest day of the week before it turns more unsettled with
shower and thunderstorm chances each day for mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

245 PM Update

GOES East visible satellite loop shows scattered to broken (30-60%)
cumulus cloud cover out there this afternoon. There is a lake breeze
convergence boundary moving into north-central NY which looks to
propagate east into this evening, acting as a catalyst for isolated
to sct`d showers/t`storms over portions of Central NY. Temperatures
are in the mid to upper 80s currently, with sfc dew points
dropping back a touch, now between 64-70F, which is up to 7
degrees lower than 24 hours ago (based on 230 PM NY mesonet).


MLCAPE is 400-800 J/Kg currently with LIs between -1 and -4 on the
SPC mesoanalysis. Effective layer shear is impressive at 40-55 kts
currently, but areal average soundings from the 17z HRRR are showing
dry air in the 750-550mb layer which is inhibiting any showers that
reach this level so far. The HRRR keeps this dry layer, and a weak
thermal cap around 575mb in place into the late afternoon
hours...and yet it does allow for a few thunderstorms to develop,
mainly along the remnant lake air mass boundary, which is
progressing east across our western/central CWA at this time.

Overall, sounding data shows most parameters unfavorable for severe
storms this afternoon...again owing to just too much dry air, and
weak mid/upper level lapse rates. Equilibrium levels are low,
especially for the mixed layer parcels, only reaching 20k ft
agl...and 25k ft agl for surface based parcels. Will continue to
monitor, but for now left mainly slight chance to low end chance
PoPs in the forecast across Central NY for the late afternoon &
early evening. Did include a small area of higher PoPs where the
storms are likely to roll through between now and 6 PM, along and
north of I-90 from near Syracuse to Rome.

Any lingering showers and storms should dissipate around or shortly
after sunset with skies becoming mostly clear overnight. Cross over
temperatures for valley fog formation are lower, in the low to mid-
60s over the region...but overnight lows will drip down into the
upper 50s to mid-60s. Therefore, with light winds and high pressure
in place did include patchy/areas of fog for the favored river
valley locations into early Sunday morning.

Quiet and warm weather on Sunday under high pressure. Valley fog
burns off and dissipates by 9 AM. Dew points will be lower between
60-65 in the afternoon, so it will not feel as humid out there.
Highs reach into the 80s areawide under mostly sunny skies. Much of
the same for Sunday night, with high pressure remaining overhead.
Clear skies, light winds and seasonable overnight lows in the 60s
will set the stage for more valley fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure starts to build into the region Saturday night
shifting any chance of showers and thunderstorms east of the region.
With the high pressure system overhead Sunday looks quiet as well.
However, heat and humidity will start to increase on the backside of
the high. Enough moisture looks to be in place to where a shower or
thunderstorm can not be ruled out Monday afternoon or night.

Temperatures overall Sunday look slightly cooler ranging from the
60`s to the 80`s. However, temperatures look to warm a few degrees
Monday with slightly higher humidity as well. Many valley locations
have the potential to hit 90 degrees, coupled with the humidity
afternoon heat index values of 95-100 are possible Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another cold front looks to push toward the region for our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday through Wednesday.
Temperatures should trend a bit cooler as well. PW values are still
forecasted to surge to around 2 inches later Tuesday, introducing a
localized small stream and urban flood concern from locally heavy
downpours.

A more concerning pattern sets up for the middle and back half of
the week. Upper level ridging off the east coast looks to slow the
movement of the front possibly even stalling out. The track of
Beryl has trended northeast enough to where current NHC
projections have it going into the Southern Plains early next
week. Ensemble guidance shows the potential for Beryl to track
further northeast along the previously mentioned cold front into
the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and the Mid Atlantic regions by
Thursday. This would enhance tropical moisture for heavy
rainfall and potential localized flooding if it tracks close
enough to the region. Any threats for gusty winds or isolated
tornadoes are also dependent on the track, which is still
highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM Update

Mainly VFR conditions persist across the region through the taf
period. However, there is a chance for an isolated thunderstorm
or two in vicinity of SYR and RME as a surface convergence
boundary moves west to east. Therefore, included a PROB30 group
at these two sites from 19-23z this afternoon/evening. For the
other taf sites, it is very likely to remain dry, with chances
for any showers or t`storms only at 10-20% through sunset.

Tonight, high pressure and clear skies lead to fog developing
again mainly at ELM as they are likely to drop below their cross
over temperature during the predawn hours. Included a period of
Below Alternate Minimum restrictions in fog for ELM between
about 08-11z. The fog should lift and scatter out quickly by
mid-morning...with a return to VFR conditions areawide for the
rest of Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Afternoon and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday Through Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms possible,
with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MJM