195
FXUS61 KBGM 060551
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
151 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and muggy weather continues this evening and overnight,
with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible.
Saturday features hot and humid weather with an isolated
thunderstorm or two around. Sunny, hot and slightly less humid
conditions return for Sunday and Monday under an upper level
ridge of high pressure. The high humidity returns by Tuesday as
a weak low moves into the area brining renewed shower and
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM Update...

Showers have kicked off over the western portion of our region
with radar imagery favoring HRRR resolution. Therefore updated
pops using a blend of HRRR and the official forecast to show
the progression of these showers over the next few hours. Also
made slight changes to update temperatures and dewpoints using
current observations. Remaining forecast is on track at this
time.

330 PM Update...

Partly sunny this evening with some lingering
showers and t`storms slowly moving east across the Catskills and
Poconos over the next few hours. Otherwise, temperatures hold
in the 80s along with very muggy dew points into the 70s. Winds
will be light and variable, so it will certainly feel quite
sticky and even hot out there this evening.

Around or just after sunset, the first surface trough moves
through that helps spark off a round of more widespread showers
and thunderstorms. It is possible for a few of these thunderstorms
to become severe as bulk shear is up over 40 knots in forecast
soundings and lifted indexes getting below -5 along with
elevated CAPE staying between 800 and 1850 J/kg through the
night. Hail and wind would be the primary threats with the
stronger storms. A second round of showers and storms then looks
to move through between 2AM and 8AM early Saturday morning.
Once again, a few of these could be strong to severe with
isolated hail, strong winds and torrential rainfall. PWATS are
over 2" on the latest HRRR and warm cloud layer depths extend
over 12k ft.

There remains some uncertainty on the exact timing of these
waves, and exactly when or how fast the rain will exit Saturday
morning. Much of the CAM guidance agrees that it will exit our
eastern zones between 7-10 AM. After this, it will mainly dry
out and surface dew points even start to mix out/decrease some
by the afternoon hours...still 65-72 degrees though. There will
also still be a few pop up showers and storms in the afternoon.
PWATs fall to around 1.3" or less by late afternoon. However,
there will still be 700-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, DCAPE over 1000
J/kg and 0-6km deep layer shear up to 50 kts. Therefore, we
cannot completely rule out an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm Saturday afternoon as well. Otherwise, there will
be morning clouds, giving way to mostly sunny skies by
afternoon. Highs will reach the mid-80s to low 90s and peak heat
indices are forecast to range from 85-95 over the area...with
even some upper 90s possible in the Wyoming Valley region. These
numbers are very close to heat advisory criteria, but confidence
on exceeding criteria for any widespread area for 2+ hours was
not quite there at this time...something to monitor in future
updates.

Any lingering showers and t`storms exit or dissipate by
Saturday evening. There will be mostly clear skies as surface
high pressure builds overhead. Winds will be light and
temperatures cooler. Areas of valley fog are likely to form as
overnight lows dip down into the upper 50s to mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
250 PM update...
Main concerns in the short term are focused on the typical
summertime hot and humid conditions Sunday and Monday with a few
weak thunderstorms kicking off Monday afternoon.

Weak/broad upper level ridge with gradual rising heights aloft
will lead to widespread suppression over the region Sunday and
Sun night with quiet weather. Precipitation chances are less
than 5% for the entire forecast area of central NY and northeast
PA. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain in the mid to
upper 80s in NY and into the upper 80s and lower 90s in ne PA.
Humidity values should be mostly tolerable with dew points in
the lower to mid 60s.

Another night of mild temperatures Sun night/Mon morning with
lows bottoming out in the 60s.

On Monday, a stronger push of the hot and humid air mass from
the south will occur which will allow high temperatures to rise
into the upper 80s and lower 90s for much of the region. Dew
points in the mid to upper 60s will make it feel just slightly
hotter, but still rather uncomfortable. The increased amount of
moisture and instability advecting into the region should lead
to slightly higher chances (10 to 15%) of thunderstorms by the
afternoon. Coverage of any storm that does form should be
isolated, the duration should be brief and the intensity should
be weak.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
250 PM update...
Low chances (10 to 20%) of showers and storms continue Monday
night as the upper short wave to the west gradually moves
eastward into a moist and unstable air mass. The overall forcing
during the night should be weak enough to keep storm intensity
to a minimum.

As Tuesday wears on the boundary layer will heat up once again
and dew points will climb into the lower 70s, which will make it
feel like the lower 90s. Much of the region will be under the
influence of the approach upper wave to the west, amidst the
deep moisture, which will induce widespread showers and storms
(40-60% chance) later in the day Tuesday into Tue night.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to how
far east the trough axis/short wave will move. If the boundary
hangs back to the west, then a greater area of showers and
storms will be possible (30-45% chance) through the day
Wednesday. If the system is more progressive then chances will
be 10-25% lower, especially over the western Finger Lakes.

It appears milder air will move in late Wed into Thu with highs
only into the lower 80s along with lower humidity. However,
cannot rule out a few scattered showers and storms pretty much
any day later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form near AVP so the
timing of thunderstorms was moved up. The showers and
thunderstorms have so far stayed NW of SYR and RME and that
trend looks to continue so IFR was taken out of the TAFs as
chances are now lower through 12Z. ELM, ITH, and BGM should be
clipped by the north edge of the thunderstorms so mainly rain
showers are expected with lightning staying south this morning.

Drier air moves in behind this mornings round of showers and
thunderstorms with cigs scattering out and VFR conditions
returning shortly after 12Z for all terminals. VFR conditions
will then persist into tonight with only a slim chance at a
shower or thunderstorm in the vicinity of ITH, SYR, and RME this
afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night...Isolated thunderstorms, then areas of fog
overnight with associated restrictions.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible,
with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...ES/MJM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...AJG/MPK