278
FXUS61 KBGM 080718
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
318 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure over the region will give way to the approach of
Beryl advancing northeast toward the region along a frontal
boundary Wednesday and Thursday. The remnants of Beryl look to
bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. That boundary
looks to stall just east of our region keeping low chances for
showers and thunderstorms into next weekend.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

High pressure will in place throughout the region leading to a
mostly sunny day and light winds. Temperatures should warm fairly
quickly well into the 80`s for most locations. A few spots may also
hit 90. Mixed out the afternoon dewpoints again based on the RGEM
model again given the inverted V type model soundings. With that in
mind, peak heat index values look to be short of 95 degrees today. A
weak boundary over NE PA into the Western Catskills may just provide
enough lift for a stray shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and
evening. However, some capping is modeled with 700 mb temperatures
around 7-8C and CIN of 50-100 J/KG which will keep coverage on the
isolated side.

High clouds look to build in overnight so despite light winds,
valley fog potential is a bit more uncertain. To counter that
dewpoints look several degrees higher making fog easier to occur.
With the muggy airmass temperatures may not fall below 70 degrees
tonight.


We should be able to squeeze out one more sunny day Tuesday.
However, temperatures look to trend slightly warmer with highs
getting into the low 90`s. The added humidity looks to get heat
index values into the 95-100 degree range across most of the
region. Heat headlines may be issued as we get closer to Tuesday
afternoon, still some uncertainity at this time in terms of how
high those values will get.

Once again a few showers or thunderstorms may develop Tuesday
afternoon and evening along the decaying boundary over NE PA and in
NY east of I-81. Still some slight capping should keep the coverage
more on the isolated side again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
348 PM Update

This period will feature active weather, with the main concerns
being the heat and increasing humidity Tuesday into Wednesday; along
with the potential for torrential rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday
night as the remnants of tropical storm Beryl move toward the area.

A Bermuda High and corresponding upper level ridge will be over the
area on Tuesday. This will bring a hot and muggy south-southwest
flow into the region. 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 576dm over NE PA,
and 850mb temperatures are a stifling +20C. This supports daytime
highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s over the CWA, and with dew points
in the mid-60s to lower 70s it will feel even hotter out there.
Maximum heat indices looks to reach well into the 90s for the
Valleys of Central NY, and perhaps even low 100s in NE PA. If
confidence in this heat/humidity continues to increase heat
advisories would be needed for portions of the forecast area.
Otherwise, Tuesday will be partly sunny with just a stray shower or
t`storm possible. Tuesday night remains quiet and muggy with lows in
the upper 60s to lower 70s expected.

Atmospheric moisture continues to increase on Wednesday as the deep
southerly flow pumps in increasing PWATs (up to 2.25") out ahead of
the remnants of Beryl. This post tropical system will interact with
an upper level trough over the Central Great Lakes, and a weak
surface warm frontal boundary draped over the area. This boundary
looks to add lift and become a catalyst for shower and thunderstorm
development Wednesday afternoon and evening. With dew points in the
low to mid-70s, PWATs up to 3 stdev above average any daytime
heating will allow MLCAPE of 800-1500 J/Kg to develop. This will
again bring likely showers and thunderstorms as the atmosphere
further destabilized. Warm cloud layer depth up to 13k ft agl
indicates the added potential for very efficient warm rain processes
during this time, and therefore high rainfall rates. WPC has our
entire CWA now under a slight risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday
into Wednesday night. It will be subtropical out there, with very
muggy and warm conditions...highs reach well into the 80s and
perhaps even low 90s for the Wyoming Valley region.

The same setup continues into Wednesday night as basically a
tropical air mass remains in place. Wind shear increases as the
current track of the remnant low is off to our west; placing Central
NY/ NE PA in a favorable area for convective development and strong
low level shear. Confidence in this low track remains low through,
and this could change. Right now the official forecast calls for
lows in the upper 60s to low 70s...but it`s possible it stays in the
low to mid-70s all night. Rainfall totals are tough to pin down this
far out in time; but the potential is there for 1-2 inches of rain
and certainly some localized higher amounts as well. We will
continue to monitor this heavy rain and flash flooding potential
very closely in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
348 PM Update

This period starts off with more active weather as the deep moisture
plume from the low/remnants of Beryl may still be in place over at
least the eastern half of the forecast area. This looks to exit off
to the east sometime on Thursday, but timing is uncertain. Dew
points, pwats and overall moisture profiles remain high early on
Thursday, then slowly decrease from west to east later in the day.
It will still be warm and humid with highs in the low to mid-80s.

The Friday and Saturday time period should feature mainly quieter
weather. However, there is a lingering stream of moisture on the
western side of a developing Bermuda high that will need to be
watched closely for heavy rain potential. Most of the latest
guidance keeps this just off to our south and east...but it could
still shift into our area. As of right now this boundary is expected
to remain close enough to bring a chance for showers and
thunderstorms each of these days. However, the humidity level does
drop some, as dew points fall back into the mid and upper 60s (as
opposed to 70s as mentioned above for Wednesday/Thursday).
Temperatures are steady, with daytime highs in the 80s and overnight
lows in the 60s. An early look shows Sunday featuring drier weather
and highs back between 85-90.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR with light winds. Main concern is the possibility for
fog MVFR/IFR in the 08-12Z window with the highest chances at
KELM. KITH and KRME may also see fog in this window. Some
uncertainity is still present so reflected this with TEMPO
groups. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can not be ruled out
this afternoon (18-22Z) near KAVP and KBGM though the expected
coverage is well under the guidelines for TAF mention at this
time.

Outlook...

Tuesday morning...Mainly VFR, fog possible between 07-13Z at
KELM.

Tuesday afternoon Through Saturday...Showers and thunderstorms
possible, with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MWG