![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
107 FXUS61 KBGM 041837 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 237 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Humidity will be increasing today with warm and muggy conditions expected into this evening. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the Southern Tier into NE PA this afternoon and overnight that could impact some firework displays. Muggy conditions last into Friday with continued risk of thunderstorms into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1235 PM Update... Forecast remains on track this afternoon. A mix of sun and clouds out there, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to mid-80s as of the midday observations. It is becoming quite humid, as surface dew points rising into the mid-60s to lower 70s. MRMS radar shows a few scattered showers out there, now exiting Sullivan County (NY) and popping over Bradford county. No lightning yet, but MLCAPE is up to 250 J/Kg and SB LIs are just below 0 now...so isolated to sct`d thunderstorms are still expected to develop later this afternoon and evening. 1000 am update... Minor adjustments to the cloud cover, PoPs and temperatures through the near term period based on latest satellite, radar and other observations. Latest CAMs such as the 12z HRRR and 06z 3km NAM were also incorporated into the official forecast. Moisture, and surface dew points are increasing over western NY/PA at this time. SPC meso-analysis shows this is where surface based and mixed layer CAPE is building most effectively this morning. Overall, it appears some isolated to sct`d thunderstorm activity will develop this afternoon and evening, mainly from the Southern Tier down across portions of NE PA. Exact timing and location of any thunderstorms is uncertain at this time...however these could linger in a few locations through sunset and into the late evening hours. This will be watched closely. Guidance shows upwards of 500 J/Kg of MLCAPE later this afternoon and evening, along with about 40 kts of 0-6km bulk shear and pwats around 1.8" so a few stronger storms with gusty winds and torrential downpours cannot be ruled out. 630 am update... Updated QPF amounts tonight into tomorrow as showers look a bit more widespread in the 6Z model runs. Also updated chances of precipitation for that reason. Showers are popping up on MRMS this morning so some higher chances of showers were introduced to the Southern Tier and NEPA through 10AM. 230 AM Update... The showers early this morning across the Finger Lakes into the Tug Hill have been spotty so precipitation chances were lowered through the morning hours. Observations across the region show southerly flow with higher dew points advecting in from the south so this afternoon will feel muggy as those dew points rise to near 70. The NBM was being a little aggressive with the afternoon dew points so a couple of drier models were blended in. Given the forecast soundings across the Southern Tier into NEPA, chances of precipitation were raised and the wording changed to coverage rather than uncertainty as there is plenty of surface based CAPE and not much cin. Tonight, the HRRR wants to have more widespread showers and thunderstorms but it is an outlier right now. Looking at the HREF most of the CAMs have surface high pressure building in and keeps the strongest warm air advection to the south. It looks like what triggers the nocturnal convection in the HRRR is the development of a 500 mb shortwave with an MCS that forms today in the central plains. Friday is looking a little warmer than today with better CAPE across the area. There will be good shear in place with forecast hodographs in the HREF members with 40 knot mean 0-6 km shear. Low level shear is on the lower side with 0-1 km shear around 15. There is a lot of difference in the directional shear with the CAMs in our region late in the day and that is likely tied to the uncertainty in whether an MCV can develop with an MCS in the central plains today into tonight. This could lead to more turning in the low levels and potentially a bigger risk for severe storms if an MCV develops and actually moves into our region. Right now with straighter hodographs and most of the shear above 3 km, the severe risk is more limited to wind and low level lapse rates are not great. CAPE is also looking long and skinny with precipitable water values over 1.5 inches so flash flooding is possible if any locations can get multiple rounds of convection over the next couple of days. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A surface low tracks north of our region on Saturday with a cold front dragging through NY & PA. Front is expected to move through early Saturday morning with model guidance hinting at lower precip chances for most of Saturday. A few isolated showers are still possible with lingering moisture behind the front. Otherwise temperatures are expected to be quite warm with southerly flow still in place. Highs will climb into the low to high 80s by afternoon with lows gradually falling into the low to mid 60s overnight. High pressure builds over the midwest expanding into our region on Sunday resulting in dry conditions. Mostly sunny skies will dominate with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Clear skies will continue into the overnight hours with calm winds allowing for a possible radiational cooling setup. Lows are forecasted to range in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure centers over our region Monday with a pleasant start to the week. Warm and quiet conditions will persist for one more day, with heat and humidity starting to increase on the backside of the high. By Tuesday and Wednesday our region rests on the edge of an upper level ridge with southwest flow and moisture advection. With heat and humidity in place, passing shortwaves should provide enough lift to set off showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance diverges towards the end of the period due to timing differences. Went with NBM pops showing a chance of showers as another disturbance moves through the region. Temperatures during this period are expected to be warm with increasing humidity as the week progresses. Highs will range in the low to upper 80s with lows in the 60s at night. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 2 PM Update Mainly VFR expected this afternoon and evening over the region. There could still be an isolated shower or thunderstorm especially for AVP or BGM; included a PROB30 group in the tafs for these two sites between about 20z to 01z this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, showers or t`storms are not expected at this time. Tonight, high pressure builds in at the surface with largely calm winds. It looks like there will be a few showers and thunderstorms across CNY into NEPA into the overnight but they will be spotty (so not included in the tafs). With some clear skies between the showers and high surface humidity values, fog chances are rather high especially for ELM. Lower chances exist at BGM, ITH, RME and AVP that will be dependent on if any rain can fall near the airports. Generally included tempo groups for MVFR Fog/Mist, except IFR at ELM between the hours of 07-11z early Friday morning. Any fog/mist burns off by mid-morning with a likely return to VFR conditions. However, additional showers and t`storms will develop and move across the forecast area on Friday. Outlook... Friday afternoon through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...AJG/MJM