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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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676 FXUS61 KBGM 051921 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 321 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and muggy weather continues this evening and overnight, with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Saturday features hot and humid weather with an isolated thunderstorm or two around. Sunny, hot and slightly less humid conditions return for Sunday and Monday under an upper level ridge of high pressure. The high humidity returns by Tuesday as a weak low moves into the area brining renewed shower and thunderstorm chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Partly sunny this evening with some lingering showers and t`storms slowly moving east across the Catskills and Poconos over the next few hours. Otherwise, temperatures hold in the 80s along with very muggy dew points into the 70s. Winds will be light and variable, so it will certainly feel quite sticky and even hot out there this evening. Around or just after sunset, the first surface trough moves through that helps spark off a round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. It is possible for a few of these thunderstorms to become severe as bulk shear is up over 40 knots in forecast soundings and lifted indexes getting below -5 along with elevated CAPE staying between 800 and 1850 J/kg through the night. Hail and wind would be the primary threats with the stronger storms. A second round of showers and storms then looks to move through between 2AM and 8AM early Saturday morning. Once again, a few of these could be strong to severe with isolated hail, strong winds and torrential rainfall. PWATS are over 2" on the latest HRRR and warm cloud layer depths extend over 12k ft. There remains some uncertainty on the exact timing of these waves, and exactly when or how fast the rain will exit Saturday morning. Much of the CAM guidance agrees that it will exit our eastern zones between 7-10 AM. After this, it will mainly dry out and surface dew points even start to mix out/decrease some by the afternoon hours...still 65-72 degrees though. There will also still be a few pop up showers and storms in the afternoon. PWATs fall to around 1.3" or less by late afternoon. However, there will still be 700-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, DCAPE over 1000 J/kg and 0-6km deep layer shear up to 50 kts. Therefore, we cannot completely rule out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm Saturday afternoon as well. Otherwise, there will be morning clouds, giving way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon. Highs will reach the mid-80s to low 90s and peak heat indices are forecast to range from 85-95 over the area...with even some upper 90s possible in the Wyoming Valley region. These numbers are very close to heat advisory criteria, but confidence on exceeding criteria for any widespread area for 2+ hours was not quite there at this time...something to monitor in future updates. Any lingering showers and t`storms exit or dissipate by Saturday evening. There will be mostly clear skies as surface high pressure builds overhead. Winds will be light and temperatures cooler. Areas of valley fog are likely to form as overnight lows dip down into the upper 50s to mid-60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 250 PM update... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the typical summertime hot and humid conditions Sunday and Monday with a few weak thunderstorms kicking off Monday afternoon. Weak/broad upper level ridge with gradual rising heights aloft will lead to widespread suppression over the region Sunday and Sun night with quiet weather. Precipitation chances are less than 5% for the entire forecast area of central NY and northeast PA. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain in the mid to upper 80s in NY and into the upper 80s and lower 90s in ne PA. Humidity values should be mostly tolerable with dew points in the lower to mid 60s. Another night of mild temperatures Sun night/Mon morning with lows bottoming out in the 60s. On Monday, a stronger push of the hot and humid air mass from the south will occur which will allow high temperatures to rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s for much of the region. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s will make it feel just slightly hotter, but still rather uncomfortable. The increased amount of moisture and instability advecting into the region should lead to slightly higher chances (10 to 15%) of thunderstorms by the afternoon. Coverage of any storm that does form should be isolated, the duration should be brief and the intensity should be weak. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 250 PM update... Low chances (10 to 20%) of showers and storms continue Monday night as the upper short wave to the west gradually moves eastward into a moist and unstable air mass. The overall forcing during the night should be weak enough to keep storm intensity to a minimum. As Tuesday wears on the boundary layer will heat up once again and dew points will climb into the lower 70s, which will make it feel like the lower 90s. Much of the region will be under the influence of the approach upper wave to the west, amidst the deep moisture, which will induce widespread showers and storms (40-60% chance) later in the day Tuesday into Tue night. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to how far east the trough axis/short wave will move. If the boundary hangs back to the west, then a greater area of showers and storms will be possible (30-45% chance) through the day Wednesday. If the system is more progressive then chances will be 10-25% lower, especially over the western Finger Lakes. It appears milder air will move in late Wed into Thu with highs only into the lower 80s along with lower humidity. However, cannot rule out a few scattered showers and storms pretty much any day later next week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 2 PM Update Scattered to bkn CIGs between 2500 to 8000 ft agl are lingering over the region early this afternoon. These should lift to mainly VFR cloud bases and scatter out more heading into the late afternoon. There will be a chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms between about 00z to 03Z, especially for the ELM and ITH area...but it could also clip SYR, BGM or even RME. This is round number 1. After a brief break, latest CAMs guidance, including the HRRR show another more substantial round of rain moving through between about 06-12z overnight into early Saturday morning. There could also be embedded thunderstorms during this timeframe as well. The highest instability looks to be over the BGM and AVP area during the overnight hours, so included PROB30 groups for TSRA here. Otherwise, with the clouds and periods of rain not expecting widespread fog, but areas of patchy fog are certainly possible even across the higher elevation taf sites. The rain showers should exit the area after daybreak Saturday morning, but MVFR CIGs may linger through mid morning. Becoming VFR by midday Saturday, but there will still be isolated thunderstorm around, especially north of BGM, including the ITH-SYR-RME area into the afternoon. Outlook... Saturday afternoon & Saturday Night...Isolated thunderstorms, then areas of fog overnight with associated restrictions. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...MJM