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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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457 FXUS61 KBGM 061659 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1259 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms have moved east with a drier air mass moving in. Temperatures will still be warm through the weekend but it will feel less muggy with the lower humidity, especially on Sunday. Heat continues into next week with chances for rain and thunderstorms returning by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1240 PM Update... Forecast is on track. Minimal changes with this update. GOES East visible satellite loop shows scattered to broken (35-60%) cumulus cloud cover out there this afternoon. Had an extremely isolated shower or two pop up, but in general there is not much, if any trigger out there to get convection going thus far. There is a lake breeze convergence boundary over western NY which may propagate east later this afternoon and act as a catalyst for isolated to sct`d showers/t`storms over portions of Central NY. Temperatures are in the low to mid-80s currently, with sfc dew points dropping back a touch, now between 65-72F, which is up to 5 degrees lower than 24 hours ago (based on 1240 PM NY mesonet data). MLCAPE is 300-600 J/Kg currently with LIs between -1 and -3 on the SPC mesoanalysis. Effective layer shear is impressive at 40-55 kts currently, but areal average soundings from the 15z HRRR are showing dry air in the 750-550mb layer which is choking off any showers that reach this level so far. The HRRR keeps this dry layer, and a weak thermal cap around 575mb in place into the late afternoon hours...and yet it does allow for a few thunderstorms to develop. Overall, sounding data shows most parameters unfavorable for severe storms this afternoon...again owing to just too much dry air, and weak mid/upper level lapse rates. Equilibrium levels are low, especially for the mixed layer parcels, only reaching 20k ft agl...and 25k ft agl for surface based parcels. Will continue to monitor, but for now left slight chance to low end chance PoPs in the forecast across Central NY for the late afternoon & early evening. 835 AM Update... The valley fog is quickly dissipating now, with some lingering convective debris clouds over the Catskills. The rain has exited the area and it should remain dry until at least 2-3 PM. Otherwise, it is mostly sunny across the region this morning. An additional area of scattered mid level clouds will move into the area this afternoon in association with a weak shortwave. Took a blend of the HRRR and 06z 3km NAM to update, and make minor tweaks to PoPs this afternoon and evening. Depending on how much mid level dry air moves into the area, there still appears to be a chance for isolated t`storms to develop over portions of CNY between about 3 PM to 9 PM today; most of the activity stays just north of the Southern Tier, but can`t rule out a stray shower/storm even here. Overall, the forecast remains well on track with not many changes needed at this time. 630 AM Update... Storms have moved off to the east with less shower activity behind it so chances of precipitation were greatly reduced through the rest of the morning. It is still looking like there will be enough instability this afternoon for a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Finger Lakes into CNY. 315 AM Update... Showers and thunderstorms have developed across east central PA early this morning and will be moving into the Wyoming Valley through sunrise. Mesoanalysis shows a decent amount of most unstable CAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) extending from the Chesapeake Bay up into PA helping to fuel these storms. 0-6 km shear with these storms is only around 20 to 25 knots though given the high CAPE severe storms are possible with strong winds and hail. Forecast soundings dont show too much cin and given the temperature at AVP was 77 degrees at 1 am it seems reasonable that some of the winds could punch through to the surface with any stronger downburst. So far despite tall cloud tops, storms have struggled to get any deep cores in order to get enough precipitation loading to get a microburst or downburst. Precipitable water values are currently over 1.5 inches with deep warm cloud depths so heavy rainfall rates are likely with any storm. Right now the storms are moving at a good pace and there has not been any training so far as of 3 am. The surface trough responsible for triggering these showers and thunderstorms will be moving east this morning with dry air advecting in. The dry air can be seen on water vapor imagery in central PA and as that moves in, day time heating will be able to mix some of it down with dew points falling this afternoon. Soil moisture will likely be fairly high with the rainfall this morning so areas that see more than a quarter inch of rain may take more time to dry out. The Finger Lakes into CNY will have a 500 mb shortwave pass through this afternoon coupled with a 250 mb jet streak with the HREF showing between 400 and 900 J/kg of surface based CAPE developing so a few isolated thunderstorms are likely. The lack of good instability will limit the severe potential with the afternoon storms but given the high shear, higher lifted condensation levels, and steep low level lapse rates, a small potential exist for severe wind gusts if any storm can get a deep enough core. The dry air in the mid levels and skinny cape depicted in forecast soundings will really lead to dry air entrainment with the storms so many will struggle to develop much above 15,000 to 20,000 feet. Once the shortwave is through this afternoon, ridging builds back in with flow aloft weakening and the 250 mb jet retreating northward. Dry air in the mid levels remains with surface high pressure building in so temperatures remain warm but mixing will help drop dew points into the mid to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure starts to build into the region Saturday night shifting any chance of showers and thunderstorms east of the region. With the high pressure system overhead Sunday looks quiet as well. However, heat and humidity will start to increase on the backside of the high. Enough moisture looks to be in place to where a shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out Monday afternoon or night. Temperatures overall Sunday look slightly cooler ranging from the 60`s to the 80`s. However, temperatures look to warm a few degrees Monday with slightly higher humidity as well. Many valley locations have the potential to hit 90 degrees, coupled with the humidity afternoon heat index values of 95-100 are possible Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Another cold front looks to push toward the region for our next chance of showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures should trend a bit cooler as well. PW values are still forecasted to surge to around 2 inches later Tuesday, introducing a localized small stream and urban flood concern from locally heavy downpours. A more concerning pattern sets up for the middle and back half of the week. Upper level ridging off the east coast looks to slow the movement of the front possibly even stalling out. The track of Beryl has trended northeast enough to where current NHC projections have it going into the Southern Plains early next week. Ensemble guidance shows the potential for Beryl to track further northeast along the previously mentioned cold front into the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and the Mid Atlantic regions by Thursday. This would enhance tropical moisture for heavy rainfall and potential localized flooding if it tracks close enough to the region. Any threats for gusty winds or isolated tornadoes are also dependent on the track, which is still highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms have left the area already so thunder and showers were removed from the TAFs. Fog will cause some restrictions through about 13Z at ELM. Dry air mixes in this afternoon with cigs scattering out by 15Z. A couple of thunderstorms are possible this afternoon around SYR, ITH, and RME but odds are low a terminal will be impacted. Tonight, high pressure and clear skies lead to fog developing again mainly at ELM. Outlook... Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...AJG