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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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735 FXUS61 KBGM 071041 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 641 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region today will give way to our next chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday ahead of a cold front. This front then looks to stall out leading to additional chances of showers and thunderstorms for most of next week with the remnants of Beryl tracking northeastward as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Only minor changes with the sunrise update, previous discussion below. Any valley fog should quickly burn off after sunrise. High pressure will be in place over the region today. This will result in a sunny and warm day. This high pressure system also has brought in an airmass with a little less humidity which is welcome. With plenty of sun highs should get well into the 80`s today. Clear skies and light winds should lead to favorable conditions for radiational cooling and temperatures falling off into the low and mid 60`s tonight. Given recent moisture and the light winds, patchy valley fog is once again likely around sunrise Monday. On Monday, high pressure shifts slowly east of the region allowing for a weak southerly return flow. As a result, temperatures and humidity look to increase a touch. Modeled soundings do show an inverted V look Monday afternoon. With that in mind, mixed in the RGEM model to bring dewpoints down slightly from the previous forecast. Heat index values look slightly lower as well with a few locations reaching 95. Confidence is not high enough for any heat headline at this time for Monday afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out in NE PA as well, but lift looks insufficient for anything more than that. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 330 AM Update... The main concern in the short term is where the remnants of Beryl go after it makes landfall in TX. A trough is looking to dig into the central US and that will help advect the deep moisture northeastward as well as bring the remnant surface low northward as well. With an upper level low off of the coast of the Carolinas and the latent heat release from Beryl strengthening Monday into Monday night, the ridge over our region will build and lead to a hot and muggy day on Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday many of the GEFS and EPS members bring the remnant low into the Great Lakes region with a warm front bringing in deep tropical moisture into our region. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF both have precipitable water values rise over 2 inches with the GEFS and EPS a little lower with a median of about 1.7 inches right now but trends are towards higher PWATs. With NY and PA being in the warm sector of the remnant low Wednesday into Wednesday night. Depending on clearing and heating, there is potential for well over 1000 J/kg of CAPE to develop. Since we will be on the east side of a remnant tropical low, there will be plenty of low level helicity for storms to work with so trends in low track as well as potential surface based CAPE trends will have to be watched. The biggest threat that is more certain with the remnants of Beryl will be the threat of heavy rain. PWAT values greater than 2 inches are not too common for the interior Northeast so rainfall rates with any storms will be extremely high likely pushing 2 to 4 inches per hour. The good news with a more inland track of the low through the Great Lakes is we wont be getting the heavy stratiform precipitation that would result in a greater risk of river flooding but some flash flooding is looking likely in our area given convective precipitation, deep warm cloud depths, and anomalous PWATs. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 330 AM Update... The long term is looking hot and humid with the Bermuda high nudging west helping to strengthen the ridging. Thursday into Friday we may still be dealing with a moisture plume left over from Beryl with the long wave trough remaining to our west. Precipitation chances were kept high as it will not be tough to get instability with the heat and humidity in place. Heat continues to build into next weekend with ensemble probabilities of afternoon highs greater than 90 degrees creeps up as well as chances of dew points greater than 70. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mainly VFR throughout the TAF period with light winds. Fog potential again overnight with the highest chance at KELM. Outlook... Tuesday Through Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...AJG LONG TERM...AJG AVIATION...MWG