573
FXUS61 KBGM 071757
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
157 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region today will give way to our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday ahead of a cold
front. This front then looks to stall out leading to additional
chances of showers and thunderstorms for most of next week with
the remnants of Beryl tracking northeastward as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1245 PM Update...
Increased cloud cover across CNY this afternoon with a good
amount of fair weather CU popping up. This is expected to
gradually clear through the mid to late afternoon.


935 AM Update...
As with the previous update, just a few minor adjustments made
at this time with the forecast remaining on track on this quiet
Sunday.

630 AM Update...
Only minor changes with the sunrise update, previous discussion
below.

Any valley fog should quickly burn off after sunrise. High pressure
will be in place over the region today. This will result in a sunny
and warm day. This high pressure system also has brought in an
airmass with a little less humidity which is welcome. With plenty of
sun highs should get well into the 80`s today.


Clear skies and light winds should lead to favorable conditions for
radiational cooling and temperatures falling off into the low
and mid 60`s tonight. Given recent moisture and the light winds,
patchy valley fog is once again likely around sunrise Monday.

On Monday, high pressure shifts slowly east of the region allowing
for a weak southerly return flow. As a result, temperatures and
humidity look to increase a touch. Modeled soundings do show an
inverted V look Monday afternoon. With that in mind, mixed in the
RGEM model to bring dewpoints down slightly from the previous
forecast. Heat index values look slightly lower as well with a few
locations reaching 95. Confidence is not high enough for any heat
headline at this time for Monday afternoon. A stray shower or
thunderstorm can not be ruled out in NE PA as well, but lift looks
insufficient for anything more than that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM Update...

The main concern in the short term is where the remnants of
Beryl go after it makes landfall in TX. A trough is looking to
dig into the central US and that will help advect the deep
moisture northeastward as well as bring the remnant surface low
northward as well. With an upper level low off of the coast of
the Carolinas and the latent heat release from Beryl
strengthening Monday into Monday night, the ridge over our
region will build and lead to a hot and muggy day on Tuesday.
Tuesday night into Wednesday many of the GEFS and EPS members
bring the remnant low into the Great Lakes region with a warm
front bringing in deep tropical moisture into our region. The
deterministic GFS and ECMWF both have precipitable water values
rise over 2 inches with the GEFS and EPS a little lower with a
median of about 1.7 inches right now but trends are towards
higher PWATs.

With NY and PA being in the warm sector of the remnant low
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Depending on clearing and
heating, there is potential for well over 1000 J/kg of CAPE to
develop. Since we will be on the east side of a remnant tropical
low, there will be plenty of low level helicity for storms to
work with so trends in low track as well as potential surface
based CAPE trends will have to be watched.

The biggest threat that is more certain with the remnants of
Beryl will be the threat of heavy rain. PWAT values greater than
2 inches are not too common for the interior Northeast so
rainfall rates with any storms will be extremely high likely
pushing 2 to 4 inches per hour. The good news with a more inland
track of the low through the Great Lakes is we wont be getting
the heavy stratiform precipitation that would result in a
greater risk of river flooding but some flash flooding is
looking likely in our area given convective precipitation, deep
warm cloud depths, and anomalous PWATs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 AM Update...

The long term is looking hot and humid with the Bermuda high
nudging west helping to strengthen the ridging. Thursday into
Friday we may still be dealing with a moisture plume left over
from Beryl with the long wave trough remaining to our west.
Precipitation chances were kept high as it will not be tough to
get instability with the heat and humidity in place. Heat
continues to build into next weekend with ensemble probabilities
of afternoon highs greater than 90 degrees creeps up as well as
chances of dew points greater than 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to be in place at all terminals
through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening. Ceiling
heights are gradually trending upwards with the fair weather CU
that has developed over much of the region. These clouds are
expected to clear during the mid-to-late afternoon hours. Winds
will remain light as well. Areas of fog will form overnight with
ELM having the highest chance of fog, generally between 08-12Z
Monday. However with the valley fog just missing the terminal
this morning and it being very close if ELM can reach the
crossover temperature overnight, IFR visibility was covered by
a TEMPO group for now and this will continue to be evaluated.

After any morning fog, VFR conditions are expected the rest of
the TAF period with light south to southwest winds developing.

Outlook...

Monday night into Tuesday morning...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday afternoon Through Friday...Showers and thunderstorms
possible, with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...DK/MWG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...DK