894
FXUS61 KBGM 081954
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
354 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest flow under high pressure will bring hot and humid
conditions to the region on Tuesday. The remnants of Beryl will
bring periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday into Thursday. A stalled front to our east combined
with a weak low moving up the coast will bring a chance for
scattered showers and storms into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
0245 PM Update...

Some fair weather cumulus clouds have spread over the region
with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s across the
region. Temperatures should rise a couple more degrees as we
reach peak heating, but the cumulus clouds have slowed the temp
rises in some area. Model soundings still show a warm nose
between 700-500mb which should limit convection into the evening
hours. A few showers may pop off across the Southern Tier and
NEPA later this evening and into the overnight hours, but
confidence is low as this is a weakly forced environment and
CAMs are not handling it well. The best chance for showers seems
to be just before sunrise as a weak shortwave ripples over NEPA
into the Catskills.

Temperatures tonight will be warm and muggy as southerly flow
advects in a moist airmass from the SE US. Dewpoints are
expected to climb from the low to mid 60s this afternoon into
the upper 60s during the overnight hours. Temps will remain warm
thanks to the WAA, only falling into the mid 60s to low 70s.

The remnants of Beryl and the associated trough will move into
the Mississippi Valley Tuesday, continuing and enhancing the
WAA into our CWA. Temperatures are expected to climb into the
upper 80s to mid 90s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low
70s. This necessitated the issuance of a Heat Advisory for much
of the CWA, with heat indices expected to climb into the mid
90s to low 100s during the afternoon hours. At this time,
Bradford, Lackawanna and Wayne counties were excluded as
indices are expected to climb into the mid 90s here and the
threshold in PA is 100F. We will update the Advisory with these
counties if needed later on. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon but severe
weather is not expected at this time.

Temps will remain warm Tuesday night as the remnants of Beryl
pushes a warm front into the region. Some showers and thunder
may develop ahead of the front, with better chances late
overnight and into the early morning hours as the front moves
into the area and Beryl slides into the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 PM Update...

An active start to this period is expected as the remnants of
Beryl enhance tropical moisture over the region while
interacting with a frontal boundary that will be crossing the
area. The remnant low is expected to pass by to our west, and
has trended farther west this afternoon with its track, moving
over eastern lower Michigan or southern Ontario Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening. Despite this shift, there is
still the potential for rounds of heavy showers and embedded
thunderstorms. PWATs continue to be over 2 inches during this
time and areas that see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall or
experience intense rainfall rates could potentially see some
flash flooding. There remains some uncertainty where the axis of
heaviest rain will be setting up however later Wednesday into
Wednesday night due to the low track being farther west and even
a bit farther north later Wednesday night into Thursday as the
low moves over eastern Ontario.

Another aspect besides the flooding that will be closely
monitored during this time is the potential for severe weather.
With low low projected to remain to the west, and the warm front
with the remnant low lifts north across at least portions of
our area, there will be decent amounts of low-level and
directional shear in place and CAPE values can climb to around
1000-1500 J/kg in a very moisture rich environment. This means
that some localized damaging wind gusts or quick, brief spin ups
with any more robust shower or thunderstorm is possible. The
SPC does NE PA and areas north to about Route 20 in CNY under a
marginal risk for severe weather.

As the remnant low moves northeastward through southeast Canada
later Wednesday night into Thursday, a strong ridge of high
pressure over the western Atlantic will help stall out the
frontal boundary to our east. This will cause a bottleneck as an
upper trough moving into the Great Lakes region settles in over
there through Friday. This trough will help continue to draw
plumes of moisture north Thursday into Friday, but the heaviest
rain may stay just east of the CWA closer to the front. A dry
slot is expected to try and move up across much of NE PA and CNY
which would limit additional shower and thunderstorm chances
Thursday and Friday. However if this dry slot doesn`t become as
robust, then there could be more frequent showers and maybe a
thunderstorm over this area to end the week. Right now the best
chance for showers/storms Thursday and Friday seems to be over
the Catskills and Wayne and Pike Counties in PA.

All in all, rainfall totals Wednesday through Thursday seem to
generally range from 1.00-2.00 inches, with the highest totals
across north-central NY and lower totals of NE PA, but this will
be monitored closely. High temperatures Wednesday through
Friday look to be mainly range from the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 PM Update...

Uncertainty remains in the forecast for the start of the
weekend as the upper trough over the Great Lakes looks to
finally press east over the the Northeast. The GFS shows a
chance of showers/storms as the trough moves through, but the
Euro and Canadian are relatively dry. Spotty showers and storms
can`t be ruled out early next week and it looks to be pretty
warm as well with temperatures returning to the upper 80s to
near 90 in some places Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered to broken fair weather clouds expected across the
area this afternoon. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be
possible near ELM/BGM/AVP late this afternoon or evening but
coverage is too low to mention in the TAFs.

ELM looks to have the best chance to see restrictions tonight.
An influx of warm and humid air from the south will push
dewpoints up to the upper 60s as temps bottom out in the upper
60s. Cloud cover will limit cooling but this should be
counteracted by the increased surface moisture. Winds are
expected to be light enough to allow fog to develop during the
8-12z period. This coverage time could increase in the next TAF
set, especially if a rain shower occurs in the area.

BGM and AVP have some weak signals for restrictions tonight,
but confidence was not high enough to include it in the TAFs.
Precipitation at or near the terminals will really help fog
formation, but at this time, confidence in showers occurring is
too low.

ITH/SYR/RME should be VFR through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday morning...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday afternoon Through Saturday...Showers and thunderstorms
possible, with associated restrictions. Most widespread activity
on Wednesday and early Thursday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ043-044-047-
     048.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC