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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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669 FXUS61 KBGM 041641 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1241 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Humidity will be increasing today with a hot and muggy afternoon expected for Independence day. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the Southern Tier into NE PA this afternoon and overnight that could impact some firework displays. Muggy conditions last into Friday with continued risk of thunderstorms into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1235 PM Update... Forecast remains on track this afternoon. A mix of sun and clouds out there, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to mid-80s as of the midday observations. It is becoming quite humid, as surface dew points rising into the mid-60s to lower 70s. MRMS radar shows a few scattered showers out there, now exiting Sullivan County (NY) and popping over Bradford county. No lightning yet, but MLCAPE is up to 250 J/Kg and SB LIs are just below 0 now...so isolated to sct`d thunderstorms are still expected to develop later this afternoon and evening. 1000 am update... Minor adjustments to the cloud cover, PoPs and temperatures through the near term period based on latest satellite, radar and other observations. Latest CAMs such as the 12z HRRR and 06z 3km NAM were also incorporated into the official forecast. Moisture, and surface dew points are increasing over western NY/PA at this time. SPC meso-analysis shows this is where surface based and mixed layer CAPE is building most effectively this morning. Overall, it appears some isolated to sct`d thunderstorm activity will develop this afternoon and evening, mainly from the Southern Tier down across portions of NE PA. Exact timing and location of any thunderstorms is uncertain at this time...however these could linger in a few locations through sunset and into the late evening hours. This will be watched closely. Guidance shows upwards of 500 J/Kg of MLCAPE later this afternoon and evening, along with about 40 kts of 0-6km bulk shear and pwats around 1.8" so a few stronger storms with gusty winds and torrential downpours cannot be ruled out. 630 am update... Updated QPF amounts tonight into tomorrow as showers look a bit more widespread in the 6Z model runs. Also updated chances of precipitation for that reason. Showers are popping up on MRMS this morning so some higher chances of showers were introduced to the Southern Tier and NEPA through 10AM. 230 AM Update... The showers early this morning across the Finger Lakes into the Tug Hill have been spotty so precipitation chances were lowered through the morning hours. Observations across the region show southerly flow with higher dew points advecting in from the south so this afternoon will feel muggy as those dew points rise to near 70. The NBM was being a little aggressive with the afternoon dew points so a couple of drier models were blended in. Given the forecast soundings across the Southern Tier into NEPA, chances of precipitation were raised and the wording changed to coverage rather than uncertainty as there is plenty of surface based CAPE and not much cin. Tonight, the HRRR wants to have more widespread showers and thunderstorms but it is an outlier right now. Looking at the HREF most of the CAMs have surface high pressure building in and keeps the strongest warm air advection to the south. It looks like what triggers the nocturnal convection in the HRRR is the development of a 500 mb shortwave with an MCS that forms today in the central plains. Friday is looking a little warmer than today with better CAPE across the area. There will be good shear in place with forecast hodographs in the HREF members with 40 knot mean 0-6 km shear. Low level shear is on the lower side with 0-1 km shear around 15. There is a lot of difference in the directional shear with the CAMs in our region late in the day and that is likely tied to the uncertainty in whether an MCV can develop with an MCS in the central plains today into tonight. This could lead to more turning in the low levels and potentially a bigger risk for severe storms if an MCV develops and actually moves into our region. Right now with straighter hodographs and most of the shear above 3 km, the severe risk is more limited to wind and low level lapse rates are not great. CAPE is also looking long and skinny with precipitable water values over 1.5 inches so flash flooding is possible if any locations can get multiple rounds of convection over the next couple of days. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday night our region looks to be firmly in a warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. PW values look rather high from 1.75-2 inches. Enough lift and moisture does look present for some scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. The high PW values may yield a locally heavy rain threat too with small stream and poor drainage flooding in a few spots. A sticky night as well with lows around 70. The cold front then looks to push through the region early Saturday. Timing currently would allow for a mainly dry weekend outside a lingering shower or two Saturday morning. Humidity does ease a bit after the cold frontal passage resulting in slightly cooler nights with lows in the 60`s. Most locations should get well into the 80`s for highs this weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure gradually builds into the region Sunday and Monday keeping a thunderstorm free period going into next week. However, heat and humidity will start to increase on the backside of the high. Highs may push 90 Monday and Tuesday with muggy lows only getting close to 70 again Monday and Tuesday nights. Another cold front looks to push toward the region for our next chance of showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures should trend slightly cooler as well. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR cigs at SYR and RME will lift and scatter out by around 14Z with some intermittent MVFR cigs at ITH, BGM, and ELM through 16Z as a front moves through. The front will reach AVP this afternoon and spark of some scattered showers and thunderstorms with a low chance of the terminal getting a direct impact. Tonight, high pressure builds in at the surface with largely calm winds. It looks like there will be a few showers and thunderstorms across CNY into NEPA but they will be spotty so no showers or thunder has been added to the TAFs yet. With some clear skies between the showers and high low level humidity, fog chances are high especially for ELM. Lower chances exist at BGM. ITH, and AVP that will be dependent on if any rain can fall near the airports. Outlook... Thursday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...AJG/MPK