953
WTNT32 KNHC 031446
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS JAMAICA WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
...EYE OF BERYL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 76.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Puerto Costa Maya to
Cancun.

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal, and north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche.

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula west of Cabo Catoche
to Campeche.

The Hurricane Watch for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti has
been discontinued.

The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman
* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d`Hainault
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo
Catoche to Campeche

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 76.1 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward
the west tonight or Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will pass near or over Jamaica during the next several hours.
After that, the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman
Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some weakening is forecast
during the next day or two.  However, Beryl is forecast to be at or
near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica later
today and the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain
a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of
Jamaica within the warning area in the next few hours.  Tropical
storm conditions are spreading across Jamaica at this time, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands
tonight or early Thursday.  Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength late this afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on
the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday night or early Friday morning.  Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late
Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area along the southwestern Peninsula of Haiti today, and in the
tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Peninsula by late
Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm
watch area along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday
or early Friday, and in the tropical storm watch area along the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday or Friday night.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6
to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate
coast of the Cayman Islands.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area.

Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with localized amounts of 12 inches across Jamaica through
Wednesday evening, along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches
over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected
to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Beryl is also expected to bring rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches
over the Cayman Islands Wednesday night into Thursday. Over the
Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches
late Thursday through Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding
are anticipated.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to
impact the Cayman Islands later today and spread toward portions
of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or
so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven