098
WTNT42 KNHC 050245
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

The weakening trend of Beryl has reversed this evening.  Satellite
images show that the eye has occasionally been evident and the
eyewall is about two-thirds closed based on Cancun radar images and
reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters.  Data from the
reconnaissance mission indicated that Beryl has strengthened back to
a dangerous category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of about 100 kt.
The minimum pressure has fallen about 10 mb from this afternoon to
964 mb.  The aircraft also indicated that Beryl remains compact, and
it is actually a little smaller than previously estimated.

The hurricane has turned westward and slowed down slightly on the
south side of a ridge centered over the southeastern U.S., with the
latest initial motion estimated to be 275/14 kt.  Beryl is expected
to maintain that general motion during the next 12 hours, which
should cause it to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula very near
Tulum early Friday morning.  Most of the models show the center
remaining over land for about 18 hours, and then emerging over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night.  Around that time, Beryl
is expected to turn to the northwest and slow down some more as it
moves along the western periphery of the weakening ridge and toward
a trough over the south-central U.S.  Although the models are in
fair agreement, there is still some spread in exactly how sharp the
system turns northwestward, and to a large degree the structure and
intensity of Beryl will be a notable factor on its track over the
Gulf.  The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the
previous one, following the trend in the latest models.

It now seems likely that Beryl will maintain its strength until it
reaches the coast.  Once the core moves inland, rapid weakening is
expected, and Beryl is forecast to fall below hurricane strength by
the time it exits the Yucatan.  Assuming the system is able to
maintain some elements of an inner core, gradual re-intensification
seems likely before it makes its final landfall in northeastern
Mexico or southern Texas.  The NHC intensity forecast again lies
near the high end of the models and continues to show Beryl becoming
a hurricane again over the western Gulf.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, so it is too soon to pinpoint where the largest
impacts will be.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are forecast to begin within the next few hours across the Yucatan
Peninsula within the hurricane warning area.  Residents there should
shelter in place through the passage of these life-threatening
conditions.

2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
late this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor
the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast.  Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued on Friday.

3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend across much
of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 19.6N  85.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 20.0N  87.5W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 24H  06/0000Z 20.9N  89.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  06/1200Z 21.9N  92.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  07/0000Z 22.9N  94.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 23.8N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 24.7N  96.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 26.8N  98.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/0000Z 28.9N  99.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi