Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
577
FONT12 KNHC 040854
PWSAT2
HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0900 UTC THU JUL 04 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 5(25)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15)
HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 17(40) 3(43)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 13(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 2 78(80) 6(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
COZUMEL MX 50 X 29(29) 11(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
COZUMEL MX 64 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
BELIZE CITY 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANAJA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 12(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
ISLE OF PINES 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
CIENFUEGOS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE