144
AXNT20 KNHC 080015
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jul 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 27.1N 95.6W at 07/0000 UTC
or 90 nm SSE of Matagorda Texas, moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 25N-29N west of 93W. Peak seas are
24 ft. The current general motion is expected to continue through
tonight, with a turn toward the north forecast on Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall
on the middle Texas coast early Monday. Strengthening is expected,
and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight. Swells
generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much
of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These
swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
impacting the much of the Lesser Antilles from 10-17N between
58W-62W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 23N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 10N-18N west of 80W, including coastal regions
of Nicaragua and Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Dakar, Senegal,
near 16N16W to 06N43W where the ITCZ then continues to 04N52W
along French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
nm of the either side of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest details
on Tropical Storm Beryl.

A 1016 mb high pressure system persists in the NE Gulf waters.
Outside of Beryl, light to gentle winds and 2-5 ft seas are found
in the E Gulf waters and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane near 28.3N
95.9W Mon morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical
storm near 30.4N 95.9W Mon afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate
across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves toward the
Texas coast through Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of
Beryl, with conditions improving Monday night into Tuesday as
Beryl moves inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
tropical wave and its convection in the western Caribbean Sea.

The Bermuda-Azores High centered northeast of the area is helping
to force a tight pressure gradient with a large area of fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean within moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are 7-10 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong tradewinds and rough seas are
expected across much of the central and NW Caribbean through
midweek. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night across the Gulf
of Honduras tonight through Tue night. Moderate to fresh winds
will prevail elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
continue across the NW Caribbean tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for the latest details on
the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A surface trough extends from 30N69W westward to the N Florida
peninsula near 29N81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
25N-30N between 67W-78W. The Bermuda-Azores High centered
north of the area is helping to force moderate to fresh trades
from 10N-30N between 20W-60W. Elsewhere winds are gentle to
moderate. Seas are 5-8 ft generally south of 26N and east of 60W.
West of 60W, seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will
linger through Mon before dissipating. Otherwise, high pressure
will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds.
Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast
of Hispaniola today and Mon.

$$
Landsea