069
AXNT20 KNHC 080523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl...Data from the National Weather Service Doppler
radar near Houston, Texas, and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Beryl`s maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 65 kt. Based on these data, Beryl is
upgraded to a hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected
before landfall on the Texas coast.

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 27.7N/95.7W at 0400 UTC.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails
across the Gulf of Mexico waters mainly N of 25N and W of 92W.
Seas of 12 ft or greater are noted within 120 NM E semicircle, 75
NM SW quadrant, and 90 NM NW quadrant, with max seas to 26 ft. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make
landfall on the middle Texas coast early Monday. Beryl is forecast
to turn northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas
and Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday. Swells generated by Beryl
are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast
of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells are expected
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
impacting the much of the Lesser Antilles from 12-17N between
57W-63W.

A tropical wave extends over the Yucatan Peninsula along 90W,
south of 23N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted inland just E of the wave axis over portions
of Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N16W to 06N42W,
where the ITCZ then continues to 04N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the either side of the monsoon
trough between 28W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest details
on the recently upgraded Hurricane Beryl.

Outside of Beryl, light to gentle winds and 2-5 ft seas are found
in the E Gulf waters and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, Beryl will move to 29.2N 95.8W Mon morning,
then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.5N 95.3W
Mon evening, and continue to weaken as it moves through Texas.
High pressure will build in the wake of Beryl, with conditions
improving Monday night into Tuesday. Looking ahead, high pressure
will persist through the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
tropical waves in the area.

The Bermuda-Azores High centered northeast of the area is helping
to force a tight pressure gradient with a large area of fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean within moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are 7-10 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the persistent strong ridge north of the area
will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across
much of the central through late this week. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds will continue in the NW Caribbean through midweek,
pulsing to strong winds at night across the Gulf of Honduras
through Tue night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
continue across the NW and SW Caribbean tonight into early Monday.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for the latest details on
the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A surface trough extends from 30N69W westward to the N Florida
peninsula near 30N81W. Scattered showers are noted from
25N-31N between 65W-73W. The Bermuda-Azores High centered
north of the area is helping to force moderate to fresh trades
from 10N-30N between 20W-60W. Elsewhere winds are gentle to
moderate. Seas are 5-8 ft generally south of 25N and east of 60W.
West of 60W, seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough in the western
Atlantic will linger through Mon before dissipating. An upper
level trough located between the SE US and Bermuda is interacting
with the surface trough, producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from the Bahamas to south of Bermuda. The storm
activity will continue to affect the waters off Florida and the
Bahamas through Tue. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across
the area with mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds. Locally
fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of
Hispaniola on Mon.

$$
ERA