634
AXNT20 KNHC 060552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jul 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0535 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 21.9N 90.8W at 06/0600 UTC
or 505 mi SE of Corpus Christi, Texas, moving WNW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently
20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring well to the north
of the center. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest and this
motion is expected to continue through this morning. A turn to
the northwest is expected thereafter, with the center of Beryl
expected to approach the Texas coast by late Sunday. Little change
in strength is expected through this morning. Afterwards,
strengthening is anticipated later this weekend, and Beryl is
forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the coast. Large
swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the
coast the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach
eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by this
morning. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident on
satellite imagery from 07N to 10N and east of 23W. The wave is
embedded within a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms north of 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. This broad wave is also embedded
within a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development
of showers and thunderstorms.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 21N,
moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper
level low over eastern Cuba resulting in numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection from Hispaniola to northern Colombia
and between 69W and 75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 10N29W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N29W to 07N46W and then from 07N48W to 07N58W.
Isolated to scattered showers are found within 120 nm on both
sides of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Tropical Storm Beryl, located in the south-central Gulf.

Aside from Beryl, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
noted in the nearshore waters of the northern and NE Gulf. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a weak high
pressure system positioned in the NE Gulf. Except for the south-
central Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent in the rest of the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 21.9N 90.8W at 2
AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. Beryl will move to 22.7N 91.8W Sat morning,
23.9N 93.6W Sat evening, 25.0N 95.0W Sun morning, strengthen to a
hurricane near 26.2N 96.0W Sun evening, 27.6N 96.6W Mon morning,
and move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 29.2N 96.7W
Mon evening. Beryl will weaken to a remnant low over 31.8N 95.3W
late Tue. Conditions will continue to deteriorate across the
western Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves toward the Texas coast.
Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Beryl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the
tropical wave in the central Caribbean.

An expansive subtropical ridge centered west of the Azores
continues to extend southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in
northern South America and the tropical wave along 78W support
moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the eastern and
north-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 21.9N 90.8W at 2
AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 1001 mb. Beryl will continue to move farther from the
NW Caribbean tonight and into Sat. Conditions will continue to
improve across the NW basin. Meanwhile, a surge of fresh to strong
winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls will move across the
central Caribbean tonight and into Sat associated with a strong
tropical wave. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas will
then prevail across much of the central and NW Caribbean this
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A broad upper level low located SW of Bermuda is interacting with
a surface trough that extends from 31N62W to 27N70W and to 28N79W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of
25N and between 58W and 70W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
captured strong to near gale-force southerly winds with this
convection. Gusts to gale force are likely occurring with the
strongest convection. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft, but higher
seas are likely found in the areas with the strongest convection.
Farther south, a weak surface trough stretches across the SE
Bahamas, producing a few showers north of Hispaniola. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the SW
North Atlantic, west of 55W.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
subtropical ridge located west of the Azores. The pressure
gradient betwen the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa
and the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE winds north of 15N
and east of 33W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough continues to stretch from
31N62W to 28N79W with strong thunderstorms noted on the eastern
side of the trough, N of 25N and E of 70W. This trough will
continue to linger through the weekend before dissipating. High
pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to
moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds can be expected near
Hispaniola at times.

$$
Delgado