690
AXNT20 KNHC 180536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jul 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/52W from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 600 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm to the east of the
tropical wave from 08.5N to 10.5N in NW Venezuela. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 450 nm to the east
of the tropical wave from 15N to 18N, to the south of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania
17N16W, to 14N27W 10N40W 10N47W 11N51W, and 11N55W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough from 50W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 32N53W Atlantic Ocean 1028 mb high
pressure center, through 30N74W in the Atlantic Ocean, through
central Florida, to 27N92W in the Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper
level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf waters. Precipitation:
Weakening convective precipitation is in the north central Gulf.
High level clouds are moving into the western half of the Gulf of
Mexico from the coastal areas of Texas and Mexico.

Fresh NE winds are within 120 nm of the NW Yucatan Peninsula.
Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.
Slight seas are in the Gulf.

High pressure will extend from the western Atlantic Ocean into
the northern Gulf of Mexico through early next week, supporting
mainly gentle winds and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong NE to E winds are from 18N southward between 70W and 76W.
Moderate to high seas are from 13N to 16N between 70W and 75W.
Moderate seas are elsewhere from 80W eastward. Slight seas are
from 80W westward. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE to E winds are
in the NE quadrant of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in
the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N from 75W in Colombia beyond
90W in the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is from 03N to the monsoon trough between 73W and 79W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 13N
southward from 80W westward.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 18/0000 UTC, are: 0.14 in Guadeloupe. This information is from
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge
extending along roughly 30N and lower pressure across South
America is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds over the
central Caribbean, along with mainly moderate seas. Winds and
seas will diminish slightly Thu through Sat as a pair of tropical
waves move through the basin. The tradewinds and associated seas
will increase again Sat night into Mon as high pressure builds
again in the wake of the tropical waves.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow, and widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation,
between 60W and Florida.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are from 16N to 27N between 20W and
70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N northward from 20W
eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate to near-high seas are from 14N to 26N between 48W
and 60W; and from 17N to 24N between 20W and 30W. Slight to
moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

The Bermuda high pressure ridge will extend east to west along
roughly 30N into Mon night. This pattern will support moderate to
fresh easterly winds south of 25N, with strong winds occasionally
pulsing off the northern coast of Hispaniola.

$$
mt