291
AXNT20 KNHC 062312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 23.9N 93.0W at 06/2100 UTC
or 330 nm SE of Corpus Christi Texas, moving NW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted N of 23N and W of 90W. Peak
seas are currently 21 ft. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will approach the Texas coast on Sunday and Sunday night and
then make landfall on the Texas coast on Monday. Swells generated
by Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the
Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at
this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at
this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 21N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N
to 20N W of 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N17W to 07N39W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W to
06N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N
between 14W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section on the latest details on
Tropical Storm Beryl, located in the western Gulf of Mexico.

Weak 1015 mb high pressure is analyzed in the NE Gulf waters.
Outside of Beryl, 3-5 ft seas and gentle winds prevail in the
eastern waters and along the central Gulf coast. Winds and seas
increase with proximity to Beryl in the south-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl will move to 24.8N 94.2W
Sun morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 95.5W Sun
afternoon, 27.5N 96.3W Mon morning, then move inland and weaken to
a tropical storm near 29.1N 96.7W Mon afternoon. Conditions will
deteriorate across the western Gulf of Mexico as Beryl moves
toward the Texas coast the remainder of the weekend into early
next week. High pressure will build in the wake of Beryl, with
conditions improving Monday night into Tuesday as Beryl moves
inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the
tropical wave in the central Caribbean.

A classic summertime pattern remains in force across the
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the central
Caribbean, including within the Windward Passage and between
Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Seas in these winds are 5-7 ft.
Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong tradewinds and rough seas are
expected across much of the central and NW Caribbean into early
next week. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

1014 mb low pressure is centered in the northern Bahamas. A
surface trough extends from the low to 27N69W to 31N65W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 22N to 30N between 61W and 71W. The
rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
subtropical ridge across the midlatitude and subtropical Atlantic.
Latest satellite scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate
trades across the basin, with fresh NE winds noted east of 30W.
Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters, increasing to 7-11 ft in the
aforementioned area of fresh winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low/trough will linger through
the weekend before dissipating. Otherwise, high pressure will
prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds.
Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of
Hispaniola later in the weekend.

$$
ERA