957
AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jul 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 30.5N 95.5W at 08/1800 UTC
or 50 nm N of Houston Texas, moving NNE at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing across Texas coastal and offshore
waters. Peak seas are 19 ft. On the forecast track, the center of
Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Steady weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 04N to
20N with axis near 35W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 33W and
40W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending to the S of 20N
with axis near 65W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is across the E Caribbean E of 70W.

A tropical wave is moving across northern Central America and
into the E Pacific waters. Its axis is near 89W and is moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered heavy showers are across the Gulf of
Honduras, and adjacent waters of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and continues
along 16N23W to 12N30W to 08N41W where the ITCZ then continues to
07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
wave in the central Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is
from 03N to 14N between 10W and 23W, and from 05N to 10N W of 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for the latest details
on now Tropical Storm Beryl.

Tropical Storm Beryl is inland eastern Texas near 30.5N 95.5W at
2 PM EDT, and is moving north-northeast at 12 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 50 kt with 60 kt gusts, and the minimum
central pressure is 987 mb. Over the NW Gulf, fresh to near gale
force winds and very rough seas to 19 ft associated with Beryl
prevail. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are elsewhere across the
basin along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, Beryl will move further inland to 31.5N 95.0W
this evening. High pressure will build in the wake of Beryl and
prevail through the week, with conditions improving tonight into
Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the
tropical waves in the area.

The Bermuda-Azores High centered northeast of the area continues
to support a tight pressure gradient that is leading to a large
area of fresh to strong trades across the central and portions of
the Caribbean. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds prevail, except
for moderate to fresh winds in the NW basin. Seas are 7-10 ft in
the central Caribbean and 3-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the strong ridge
north of the Caribbean and lower pressure over Colombia will
support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across much of
the central and SW Caribbean through late this week. Winds may
pulse to near gale at night off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean through midweek,
pulsing to strong speeds across the Gulf of Honduras tonight and
Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section for the latest details on
the tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean.

Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are across the central and
western subtropical Atlantic waters along with moderate seas
under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High associated ridge.
Northeast winds of the same magnitude are also ongoing across the
E subtropical Atlantic waters along with moderate seas, except for
fresh to locally strong winds E of the Canary Islands. Otherwise,
a surface trough between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to
support a broad area of scattered showers and thunderstorms N of
25N between 68W and 79W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the interaction between an upper
level low located between the SE US and Bermuda, and a surface
trough will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
between the Bahamas and Bermuda through Tue. Otherwise, high
pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to
moderate southerly winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse
off the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight and then late this
week.

$$
Ramos