204
AXNT20 KNHC 021811
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jul 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Beryl is centered near 15.3N 68.9W
at 02/1500 UTC or 205 nm SE of Isla Beata, Dominican Republic, and
moving WNW at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 938
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt. Peak
seas near the center are around 42 ft. Numerous strong convection
is noted within 70 nm of the center. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is farther northeast of the center
from 14N to 17N between 66W and 68W. Beryl is forecast to
continue a W to WNW motion through early Fri morning, bringing
Beryl near Jamaica Wed evening, and the Cayman Islands on Thu
morning before approaching the Yucatan Peninsula Thu night. A
gradual weakening trend should begin later today but Beryl will
remain a major hurricane through Thu. Additional weakening is
anticipated afterward but Beryl will remain at hurricane strength
through Fri before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Besides
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, interests in Belize, the Yucatan
Peninsula, Cuba, Hispaniola and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Beryl closely. Scattered heavy
showers and isolated strong thunderstorms will persist over
Hispaniola through this evening. Localized flooding and mudslides
are possible, especially in hilly terrains of Hispaniola. Heavy
rainfall and flash flooding are likely over Jamaica on Wednesday.
Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days.
Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail. For
the latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit
www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 21W from 17N southward, and moving westward at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to
14N between the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea coast and 23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave (Invest 96L) is near 47W from
17N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 11N to 13N between 47W and 52W.
Fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are
found from 12N to 17N between 43W and 53W. Environmental
conditions at the central and western tropical Atlantic are only
marginally conducive for development on this system. There is a
low chance for development on this system for the next 7 days.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor this
system, since it can still bring showery and gusty conditions Wed
night and Thu. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from the Cayman
Islands southward across western Panama into the Pacific Ocean.
It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered heavy showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms are present from 10N to 14N between
77W and the Nicaragua coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic along the coast of southern
Mauritania, then curves southwestward through 10N25W to 07N32W.
An ITCZ continues northwestward from 07N32W to 11N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is present near the trough from 06N to 10N
between 23W and 30W. No significant convection is found near the
ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of
northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about dangerous Hurricane
Beryl which may impact the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

A surface trough runs southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area
across a 1013 mb low south of New Orleans to 27N91W. This feature
is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across
the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Otherwise, a modest
surface ridge extends west-northwestward from southern Florida to
a 1016 mb high off Brownsville, Texas. Gentle with locally
moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are found at the
southwestern and northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to
2 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will linger through Thursday
in advance of Beryl, now in the eastern Caribbean. Beryl will
continue west-northwest across the Caribbean Sea and gradually
weaken for the next few days. It should move inland across the
Yucatan near 20N 88.2W Fri morning, then enter the Gulf of Mexico
near 21N 90.7W Fri evening as a strong tropical storm, and turn
northwestward to near 22N 93W Sat morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
dangerous Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean
Sea.

Outside of the direct influence of Beryl, fresh to strong
easterly winds and seas of 10 to 20 ft are evident south of the
Mona Passage and Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
8 to 14 ft seas are evident elsewhere in the eastern basin.
Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the
central southwestern basin and near the Windward Passage. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the
rest of the Caribbean Sea, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, Beryl will continue W-NW across the basin and
begin to weaken very slowly, reaching near 17.2N 75W Wed morning,
near 18.8N 82W Thu morning, and inland across the Yucatan near 20N
88.2W Fri morning. A surge of fresh to strong winds and squalls
is expected to move across the tropical North Atlantic tonight
through Wed, then across the eastern and central Caribbean Wed
through Fri, associated with a tropical wave (Invest AL96).

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough curves southwestward from northwest of
Bermuda across 31N71W and the northwest Bahamas to the Great
Bahama Bank. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the
southeastern Florida coast and northwestern/central Bahamas.
Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A vigorous Atlantic Ridge stretches southwestward from a 1034 mb
Azores High across 31N56W to beyond southern Florida. Light to
gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted north of 25N between
70W and the Florida/Georgia coast. To the east, gentle to moderate
ENE to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas exist north of 22N between 35W
and 70W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh with locally strong N to
NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident north of 18N between
the northwest Africa coast and 35W. Farther south including the
Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in
moderate northerly swell are found north of 10N between the
central Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N
to 18N/25N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles but outside the
AL96, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are
noted. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with 4 to
6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned Atlantic Ridge
will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate
seas south of 25N. Winds and seas will be locally strong north of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the next several days as Beryl
moves through the Caribbean. A decaying cold front may drop south
of 31N tonight through Wed night, potentially stalling and
lingering near 30N through the end of the week.

$$

Chan