351
AXNT20 KNHC 161729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Sep 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Gordon: Gordon is centered near 19.1N 48.1W
at 16/1500 UTC or 860 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving
W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are
near 11 ft. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest
at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast by
Wednesday. Gordon will move to 19.2N 48.7W this afternoon, 19.5N
49.2W Tue morning, 19.9N 49.4W Tue afternoon, and 20.5N 49.1W Wed
morning. Gordon will then strengthen into a tropical storm near
21.6N 48.5W Wed afternoon, and move to 23.1N 47.6W Thu morning.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

12ft Seas in the Central Atlantic: A 1010 mb surface low
currently near 31N50W will strengthen over the next several days.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are currently occurring on the
east side of the low north of 27N and west of 46W, while fresh to
strong winds are occurring on the west side of the low north of
29N and east of 56W. Peak seas are currently 10 to 11 ft in NE
swell north of 29N between 48W and 54W, but will build in excess
of 12 ft starting Tuesday morning. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft in NE
swell will cover an area from 27.5N northward to 31N between 47W
and 55W Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Strong to
near-gale-force NE winds will also accompany these peak seas
during a similar time frame. Seas will then steadily fall
Wednesday evening.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 26W from 06N to
20N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are observed from 07N to 11N between 22W and 30W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 20N
southward to inland Colombia, moving W at around 10 kt. No
significant convection is associated with this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W extending from 20N
southward through Honduras, western Nicaragua, and into the
Eastern Pacific. No significant convection is associated with this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and
continues west-southwestward to near 11N40W. Another segment of
the monsoon trough is analyzed from 14N51W to 13N55W. The ITCZ
then continues from 13N55W to 13N61W. Numerous moderate convection
is observed from 10N to 17N between the African coast and 22W.
Scattered moderate convection is also observed from 08N to 13N
between 34W and 44W, as well as from 13N to 16N between 53W and
64W.

The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from 12N74W to the
coast of Costa Rica near 10N82W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted in the Colombian Basin along and within 150
nm of the trough axis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is draped across the northern and northeastern
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring over the northern Gulf north of 26N and east of 87W to
the Florida coast. A surface trough is analyzed over the western
Gulf producing scattered moderate strong convection off NE
Mexico out to about 93W. A diurnal surface trough is also analyzed
over the Bay of Campeche, with scattered moderate convection
developing along far southern portions of the trough. Elsewhere
away from convection, gentle to locally moderate E winds and
slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf
waters supporting generally light to gentle winds and slight seas
most of the work-week. A stationary front over the NE Gulf will
dissipate on Tue. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse in the
Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week. A cold
front moving through the Gulf late week will support moderate NE
winds across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical waves moving across the basin, and the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for details on convection in the eastern
Caribbean.

Convergent surface winds are leading to the development of
scattered moderate convection from the Windward Passage and E
coast of Cuba through the NE coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua.
Recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong E winds in the
central Caribbean south of 16N between 68W and 78W, along with
seas of 6 to 8 ft in this region. Moderate to fresh E winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Meanwhile,
the western Caribbean is seeing moderate to fresh E winds and
slight seas.

For the forecast, high pressure located NE of Puerto Rico will
continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central
Caribbean through Tue. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds
and moderate seas are expected, with the exception of gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas in the NW and SW parts of the
basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Depression Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the
Tropical Waves section for details on the wave in the basin.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, while located well north of the
forecast waters, continues to support moderate to fresh cyclonic
winds north of 29N between 76W and the Florida coast, along with
seas of 6 to 8 ft. A stationary front extends southwestward from
PTC Eight through the central coast of Florida, and also extends
southeastward from PTC Eight to a 1012 mb low near 32N69W, then
eastward to a 1010 mb low near 31N61W, and then southeastward to
29N56W. A cold front then is analyzed from 29N56W to another 1010
surface low near 31N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along and generally within 150 nm of each segment of each front.
Convergent surface winds are leading to the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N to 27N
between 63W and 73W. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are
occurring across areas from the Canary Islands westward to 25W and
north of 25N.

Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away
from Tropical Depression Gordon and the aforementioned areas of
convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight and
the accompanying fronts. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring across much of the basin east of
40W. To the west of 40W, light to gentle SW winds and seas of 4 to
7 ft are analyzed.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas, generated by Potential
Tropical Cyclone Eight located N of the area, will affect the
waters N of 29N and W of 77W today. Then, seas will subside to
less than 8 ft by tonight. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds
will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of the
week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will
develop Tue north of 25N and east of 60W as a surface low near
30N50W strengthens. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail across the rest of the basin.

$$
Adams