121
AXNT20 KNHC 042234
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 19.5N 84.3W at 04/2100 UTC or
190 nm ESE of Tulum Mexico, moving WNW at 17 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Seas of 12 ft or greater are
expected within 180 NM NE quadrant, 120 NM SE quadrant, 75 NM SW
quadrant, and 150 NM NW quadrant, with seas to 37 ft. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 17N-23N
between 80W-87W. Large swells generated by Beryl are currently
impacting portions of the coast of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman
Islands, the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach
eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late
Friday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office for more details.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, from 22N
southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. The broad tropical wave is
embedded in dry Saharan air, which is currently suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave (Invest 96L) is along 71W,
south of 19N from eastern Hispaniola into western Venezuela,
moving quickly west at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 14N to 19N between 65W and 75W. Development,
if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next several
days. The system is forecast to cross the Yucatan Peninsula late
this weekend and enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by early
next week. Regardless of development, gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Greater
Antilles over the next few days. The chance of tropical cyclone
formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days is LOW. Please refer to
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 06N40W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 05N53W. Scattered showers are noted
along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl, which is forecast to enter the Gulf waters Sat
morning.

1017 mb high pressure anchored in the NE Gulf provides for light
to gentle E to SE winds across the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft.
Building seas are near 5 ft in the Yucatn Channel, due to
arriving SE swell from Hurricane Beryl.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl will move to 20.0N 86.6W Fri
morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N
89.2W Fri afternoon, 21.6N 91.5W Sat morning, 22.6N 93.5W Sat
afternoon, 23.6N 95.2W Sun morning, and strengthen to a hurricane
near 24.5N 96.5W Sun afternoon. Beryl will weaken to a tropical
storm while moving inland to near 26.5N 98.5W Mon afternoon. There
remains some uncertainty in the track forecast of Beryl over the
western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf
of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
additional convection in the central Caribbean.

Outside of Hurricane Beryl, which dominates the NW Caribbean,
trades are moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean and gentle
to moderate in the central Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft, with local
peaks to 8 ft south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl will move to 20.0N 86.6W Fri
morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N
89.2W Fri afternoon, 21.6N 91.5W Sat morning, 22.6N 93.5W Sat
afternoon, 23.6N 95.2W Sun morning, and strengthen to a hurricane
near 24.5N 96.5W Sun afternoon. Beryl will weaken to a tropical
storm while moving inland to near 26.5N 98.5W Mon afternoon. A
surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls
is expected to move across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Fri, associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds will then prevail across much of the central
and NW Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N58W and
continues to 28N72W, where it transitions to a stationary front
to 30N79W. Moderate to fresh S winds are within 120 nm ahead of
the cold front north of 26N. Scattered moderate convection is
north of 24N between 56W and 67W ahead of the cold front. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
subtropical high pressure centered north of the area and a large
outbreak of the Saharan Air Layer. Latest satellite scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle trades across the basin, reflecting
the relaxed pressure gradient. Seas are 4-6 ft, with a local peak
to 7 ft near the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Beryl is moving through
the NW Caribbean and is forecast to remain away from the Atlantic
basin. A weak cold front stretches from 31N57W to 28N70W,
continuing as stationary to 30N76W. The front will stall and
dissipate through the end of the week. High pressure will prevail
otherwise with mainly gentle to moderate winds, locally fresh to
strong near Hispaniola at times.

$$
ERA