459
AXNT20 KNHC 070551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0535 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Beryl is centered near 24.9N 94.3W at 07/0600 UTC
or 240 nm SE of Corpus Christi, Texas, moving NW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered showers are
observed in the northwest quadrant. Peak seas are currently 20
ft. Beryl is moving toward the northwest and this motion should
continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected tonight, with a turn toward the north on Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to make landfall
on the Texas coast Monday morning. Strengthening is expected, and
Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane again later today or
tonight before it reaches the Texas coast. Swells generated by
Beryl are expected to affect eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf
Coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are evident on satellite
imagery from 07N to 10N and near the trough axis. The wave is embedded
within a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development
of showers and thunderstorms north of 10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of 21N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is also embedded within a
dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of showers
and thunderstorms.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 21N,
moving westward at 10 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper
level low located south of the Cayman Islands, resulting in
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection south of 20N and
between 76W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N17W to 12N25W and to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N36W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 03N to 09N and between 26W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Tropical Storm Beryl, located in the western Gulf of Mexico.

A weak 1015 mb high pressure system continues in the NE Gulf
waters. Outside of Beryl, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are found in the eastern Gulf waters and Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is near 24.9N 94.3W at 2
AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 995 mb. Beryl will move to 25.7N 95.1W Sun morning, strengthen
to a hurricane near 27.1N 96.0W Sun evening, inland to 28.8N
96.6W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
30.7N 96.5W Mon evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical
depression near 32.6N 95.4W Tue morning, and inland to 34.5N 93.6W
Tue evening. Beryl will move inland near 37.8N 89.0W late Wed.
Conditions will deteriorate across the western Gulf of Mexico as
Beryl moves toward the Texas coast through Mon. High pressure will
build in the wake of Beryl, with conditions improving Monday
night into Tuesday as Beryl moves inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the
tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea.

Outside of the influence of the tropical wave, fairly tranquil
conditions are evident on satellite imagery in the central and
eastern Caribbean. A 1030 mb high pressure system centered over
the north Atlantic extends southwestward into the basin. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in
northern South America sustain fresh to strong easterly trade
winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
The strongest winds and highest seas are noted off northern
Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong tradewinds and rough seas are
expected across much of the central and NW Caribbean through
midweek. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue across the NW
Caribbean through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
the tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A broad upper level low positioned near 31N70W is interacting with
a surface trough extending from the NW Bahamas to near Bermuda.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring
north of 23N and between 65W and 74W. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds
are noted from 55W to 72W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
Elsewhere west of 72W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
subtropical ridge located SW of the Azores. The pressure gradient
betwen the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the
deep tropics support fresh to strong NE winds north of 15N and
east of 37W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a trough extending from 30N67W to
the northern Bahamas will linger through Sun before dissipating.
Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the area with mainly
gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse
off the northern coast of Hispaniola later in the weekend.

$$
Delgado