Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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197 FXUS63 KARX 122339 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 639 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms are expected north of Interstate 94 this afternoon and evening. Better rain chances are expected across the entire area from Wednesday into Friday night. - Temperatures will be near normal for much of the next 2 weeks. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 This Afternoon into Evening... Water vapor satellite imagery continue to show that a shortwave trough will move southeast through north-central Wisconsin late this afternoon and evening. Both the visible and infrared satellite imagery is showing some shower development along and in the vicinity of a surface front that extends from the western tip of Lake Superior to Green Bay. The daytime cloud phase distinction is even showing some cloud top ice nucleation. This is resulting in some isolated to scattered storms. With the congestus clouds field increasing over the the past 2 hours, opted to increase the shower and storm chances into the 30 to 40 percent range. There is some concern that these rain chances may be too low and not enough. Tonight into Tuesday Night... High pressure will build across the area tonight and remain in control of the weather into Tuesday night. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to mid-80s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday into Friday Night... A front will move slowly east across the forecast area. As waves of low pressure move along this front, there will be several rounds of showers and storms. With precipitable water values of around 1.5 inches and warm cloud depths of 3.5 to 4 km, these showers and storms will be highly efficient rain producers. WPC has the area under marginal risk for excessive rain for much of this period. CSU has a 0.05 to 0.15 probability of severe weather south of Interstate 90 from Thursday into Thursday night, so there is a small potential for isolated severe storms. 8-14 Day Period (August 20-26) and Beyond... An omega ridge will likely remain west and northwest of the area from mid to the latter portions of August. This will result in higher probabilities for near-normal temperatures and below- normal precipitation. Looking further out, there are signals for a Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to move east into the eastern Indian Ocean (Phase 3) and possibly into the Maritime Continent (Phase 4). This may result in a westerly wind burst which could reinforce the low frequency La Nina base state across the central equatorial Pacific. Time-lagged MJO composites would suggest that the upper level ridge may move east across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and into the Great Lakes and New England in late August or early September. This could result in an increase in the probabilities for above-normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Surface high pressure remains over the region again through tonight with light winds and VFR conditions outside of fog chances. Dewpoint depressions are quite large, thus we`ll need to continue to monitor trends overnight. Forecast soundings at both RST and LSE show very light winds through about 3km. KRST has a few mid clouds nearby. Previous forecast had LIFR conditions at KLSE for dense valley fog 09-14Z. Conditions appear quite favorable for river valley fog except for the current dewpoint depressions, thus have left the tempo group in. KRST may see IFR conditions develop, however with lower confidence, have left out for now. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Zapotocny