076
FNUS53 KAPX 021859
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...Rain Showers/ Thunderstorms Tonight...

.DISCUSSION...

Numerous to widespread showers occur tonight, along with a few
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain will be possible with some
passing showers, especially stretching from Leelanau county to the
tip of the Mitt and EUP. Rain chances will gradually diminish
Wednesday with no precipitation expected for Thursday, the Fourth.
Southerly winds 5-10 kts gusting to 15-20 kts will turn West
10-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts at times for Wednesday. No RH
concerns are anticipated over the next few days.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-030830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Scattered showers
                    until 2400, then numerous showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (52).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.47 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (772).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.18 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (456).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-030830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Scattered showers.
                    Slight chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (46).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.36 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then mostly
                    sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200, then
                    isolated showers.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (868).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 80-85 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (46).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer...except 8 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 5 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (547).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-030830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Scattered showers
                    until 2400, then numerous showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (53).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.14- 0.68 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 5 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (694).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.11 in.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 83-88 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (37).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 7 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (426).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-030830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Scattered showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    numerous showers and chance of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (59).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.44 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent...except 61-66 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (761).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (573).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-030830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
259 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered
                    showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (46).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.36 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) until 1200, then mostly
                    sunny (45-55 percent). Scattered showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....81-86.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1021).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (49).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....81-86.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (766).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

NSC