472
FNUS53 KAPX 031821
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
221 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...Lingering Showers/ Storms Tonight...

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered showers/ storms are expected to impact
parts of Northern Michigan this evening. A stronger storm or two
could occur with the primary threats being gusty winds and small
hail. Otherwise, dry conditions forecasted with a possibility of
locally early morning fog Thursday, the fourth. A thing to note,
is an isolated afternoon shower across northeast lower and eastern
upper will be possible for the Holiday due to lake breeze
convergence. Otherwise, generally partly cloud skies, with highs
ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s expected for the fourth, with
no RH concerns anticipated over the next few days.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-040815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
221 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (46).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (550).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 80-85 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the east after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers.
                    Chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........72-77 percent.
   24 HR Trend......35 percent wetter...except 23 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (293).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.54- 1.03 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-040815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
221 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (51).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (562).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (21).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200, then rain showers and chance
                    of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........71-76 percent.
   24 HR Trend......38 percent wetter...except 29 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (257).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.45- 0.73 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-040815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
221 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (42).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (465).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the east around
                    9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Showers. Chance
                    of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........72-77 percent.
   24 HR Trend......36 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (226).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.62- 1.11 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-040815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
221 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (41).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 73-78 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 51-56 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 17 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (539).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the east around
                    9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers. Chance
                    of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........74-79 percent.
   24 HR Trend......39 percent wetter...except 32 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (311).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.48- 1.11 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-040815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
221 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....83-88.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (756).
Mixing Height.......6600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the east
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (29).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph shifting to the east after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers. Chance
                    of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........68-73 percent.
   24 HR Trend......38 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (303).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.41- 0.83 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

NSC