933
FXUS63 KAPX 112330
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
730 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers and storms possible through Saturday. Chance
  for severe storms and locally heavy rain.

- Drier Sunday into early next week with another round of warmer
  temperatures expected by Monday - Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Generally zonal flow/weak bagginess found
in the mid-upper levels across the western Great Lakes this
afternoon in advance of a much more potent wave currently situated
from the Manitoba into the northern Plains. This more robust wave
expected to trek east-southeastward over the next 36 hours, becoming
negatively tiled with time before clearing east of the area Saturday
night. Attendant area of low pressure and associated cold front will
follow suit with that frontal boundary eventually clearing west to
east Saturday evening/early overnight.

Remnant MCV providing the impetus for continued showers and storms
focused downstate this afternoon, nosing into far southern reaches
of the forecast area at times. Additional convective development
ongoing upstream over eastern IA/northwest IL. This latter
development likely to make headway into northern MI tonight (albeit
in weakening fashion) on the heels of an increasing LLJ. This should
aid in drawing a stationary front northward, effectively as a warm
front, bringing an atmosphere characterized by ample moisture (near
climo max for mid-July), modest shear and potential for increased
instability later tonight through Saturday. While some uncertainties
exist, the potential is there for periods of impactful weather
through the first half of the weekend.

Forecast Details: Most numerous shower coverage early this afternoon
lies across southeast lower MI with just a few showers working their
way into southern reaches of the forecast area. While an additional
isolated shower or storm may percolate through this evening,
attention focuses to convection developing to our southwest.
Increasing LLJ will aid in northward moisture transport with
potential for more numerous showers to blossom across northern MI
after midnight. While some elevated instability may yield a few
rumbles of thunder, the primary concern for tonight is the potential
for locally heavy rainfall given efficient warm rain processes.

Depending on how tonight and early Saturday morning evolve throws
some uncertainty in for the remainder of the Saturday with a
conditional severe weather setup still on the table. One thing`s for
sure, an essentially tropical airmass will be overhead characterized
by PWs near mid-July climatological max and sfc dew points creeping
into the low 70s. Current confidence (albeit low) lies in a solution
that features two periods for potentially strong-severe storms. The
first is pre-frontal during the midday/early afternoon hours as lead
shortwave trough/vorticity maxima and remnant MCV may aid in driving
additional convective development. Primarily a damaging wind threat
if any storms develop through this timeframe, although a low tornado
threat as well given the moisture rich airmass, low LCLs and perhaps
a MCV-driven locally higher sheared environment.

In the wake of Saturday midday/early afternoon, cloud trends and
our ability to destabilize through the afternoon should be an
indicator of possible severe weather chances later Saturday
associated with the incoming cold front. While mid-level
subsidence increasing late in the day may really limit storm
coverage, a favorable environment should be in place for
additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across
parts of the state, again with damaging wind gusts as the primary
concern. SPC maintains their Day 2 SWO with a Slight Risk (level
2/5) east of a Rogers City to HTL line bounded by a Marginal Risk
(level 1/5) elsewhere.

Warm rain processes should yield very efficient and locally
heavy/torrential rainfall, especially where convection is able to
develop Saturday. Given flow largely parallel to the boundary,
training convection remains a possibility with at least a low chance
for localized flooding concerns. WPC`s Day 2 Excessive Rain Outlook
keeps the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rain.

Cold front clears Saturday night with a much drier airmass incoming
to wrap up the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Pattern Forecast: More zonal flow arrives Sunday with weakly ridged
upper-levels to be featured into early next week. Another wave
expected mid-late week. Surface high pressure expected to prevail
Sunday through much of Monday. Potential exists for a moisture
starved cold front to cross the area Monday evening/night with a
more robust boundary possible mid-late week with additional chances
for more active weather.

Forecast Details: A general reprieve in active weather expected
Sunday-Monday, although a low end shower/storm chance exists across
northern areas late Monday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, the best
rain chances through the extended appear to arrive mid-late week as
another wave and associated reflection approach the region.

Temperatures Sunday topping out in the upper 70s to mid-80s warm
into the upper 80s and low 90s for many Monday/Tuesday. Cooler
temperatures possible mid-late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Some SHRA in the interior of northern lower MI, though this
activity seems unlikely to directly impact the TAF sites
(perhaps APN). Better chance of worsening conditions will be
overnight, as active wx now w of Lake MI move ne. MVFR to IFR
cigs/vsbys in SHRA and perhaps TSRA will occur overnight.
Depending on how this exactly evolves, additional rounds of
SHRA/TSRA will be possible on a passing cold front Saturday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JZ