609
FXUS63 KAPX 081921
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
321 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms diminish tonight.

- Isolated showers and storms on Tuesday east of I-75.

- While some uncertainty remains, the latest trends keep the bulk of
  remnants of Beryl to the south of northern Michigan.

- Increasing warmth/humidity this weekend with more instability-
  driven shower/storm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Generally lower heights to the north and west tonight with a feature
aloft advecting through N MI into Tuesday morning. General west to
southwest flow aloft Tuesday afternoon with the lower than normal
heights flattening out as a jet streak moves through N MI into
Canada. Weak west to northwest sfc flow will likely allow for some
sort of marine influence and local convergence across the Lake Huron
coastal sections during the afternoon hours, thus isolated storms
possible.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Marginal environment for strong thunderstorms will prevail this
evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorms quickly diminishing
with time overnight with both the loss of daytime heating and upper
support. Still, cannot rule out a stronger storm or two early in the
evening (environment of ~1000-1500J/kg of CAPE and ~30kts of bulk
shear) producing gusty winds, hail, and/or locally heavy rain.
Otherwise, mild overnight temperatures expected.

Heading into Tuesday, flow washes out aloft, with weak west to
northwest sfc winds. Consequently, looks to be a potential
convergence zone near the lake shores of Lake Huron, especially
southeast portions of the area. With modest moisture and lingering
weak instability, chance for weak isolated thunderstorms east of I-
75. Not expecting severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Pattern Forecast: By Tuesday evening, broad troughing anticipated
across the nation`s midsection sandwiched between weak ridging off
the East Coast and more amplified ridging/heat dome out west.
Remnants of Hurricane Beryl expected to already be ingested into
aforementioned troughing with ~1007mb surface low situated near
southern IL/western KY. Focus through midweek will revolve around
increased potential for wet weather as that system continues to trek
northeast toward the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes. Late week
into the weekend, rising heights will aid to promote increasing
warmth and humidity across the Great Lakes. Potential also exists
for more instability driven showers/storms Friday through the
weekend.

Forecast Details: Generally tranquil conditions anticipated Tuesday
night with remnants of Beryl approaching from the southwest. While
some uncertainty remains, latest ensemble means keep low pressure
centered over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday with the highest
probability for potentially impactful rain across IN/northern OH and
southeast MI. Locally, the highest chances for showers associated
with this system continue to be focused across southeastern areas,
especially near Saginaw Bay through the day Wednesday. Additional
uncertainties riddle the forecast Thursday with potential for
lingering moisture and additional mid-level wave providing the
impetus for at least low chances for showers/storms.

Friday into the weekend, slowly rising heights are anticipated to
aid in building heat/humidity back across northern Michigan. Latest
trends support high temps well into the 80s/near 90 degrees for some
by Saturday/Sunday. Instability-driven showers/storms become
probable during this time frame, especially during peak heating each
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

SCT RA/TSRA this afternoon, best chance will likely be along and
north of M-72 roughly. Introduced VCTS at several terminals with a
moderate confidence based on latest satellite trends and available
guidance. Stronger storms will be capable of gusty winds, hail, and
locally heavy rain. Activity looks to diminish tonight, with LIFT
CIGs across E UP and near IFR across the tip of the mitt. Winds will
be light outside of any direct thunderstorm influence.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JLD