882
FXUS64 KAMA 031443
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
943 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northeast
across west Texas this morning. These showers and storms will
continue to move across portions of the Panhandles through the
morning into the afternoon hours. Severe weather is not expected
with the showers and storms through at least early afternoon. The
severe threat for today will be quite limited to any storms moving
in from the west later today. Even with that being said, cloud
cover and these showers will limit daytime heating which should
limit or even inhibit the severe potential later today. Adjusted
PoPs based on latest radar and hi-res trends as well as decreased
high temperatures for today with cloud cover and showers remaining
over the region.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The cold front that made it through the southern Texas Panhandle
earlier tonight is expected to stall and dissipate today.  This will
allow southerly moist low level flow to move back across the
Panhandles today.  This moisture coupled with a couple of
disturbances aloft should be enough to continue to fire showers and
thunderstorms through tonight. Some of the storms may become severe
with damaging winds the main threat.  However, a hailstone to the
size of a half dollar would not be out of the question.

On the 4th of July, a stronger cold front is expected to move
through the Panhandles during the late morning and afternoon.  Some
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the southeast
Texas Panhandle in the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the
front.  Shower and thunderstorm development is expected to increase
after midnight of the 4th into the 5th as an upper level disturbance
approaches in the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The northwest flow aloft is expected to continue through Tuesday of
next week with a high centered over California and Nevada and a
trough centered over the Great Lakes.  This flow coupled with weak
disturbances will continue to bring daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the Panhandles.  The northwest flow will also usher
in another cold front on Sunday.  High temperatures are expected to
generally remain below normal from Friday through next Tuesday.
However, Sunday could be just a tad above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Winds are expected to become more southerly at around 15 knots
with higher gusts by mid afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be
possible and one or two may have strong gusty winds with them this
afternoon into the early evening. Winds are then expected to
decrease to around 10 knots or less this evening out of the
southeast. Skies are expected to remain VFR outside of
thunderstorms. However, the GUY TAF site may have some IFR CIGs
this morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                88  70  93  65 /  50  20  10  50
Beaver OK                  84  67  87  61 /  60  30  10  30
Boise City OK              84  62  84  58 /  40  30   0  40
Borger TX                  91  72  95  65 /  50  20  10  50
Boys Ranch TX              90  67  93  63 /  50  20   0  50
Canyon TX                  89  69  93  63 /  50  20  10  50
Clarendon TX               91  72  96  65 /  50  20  20  40
Dalhart TX                 88  63  88  59 /  30  30   0  40
Guymon OK                  85  64  86  59 /  50  30   0  40
Hereford TX                91  70  95  65 /  50  20  10  50
Lipscomb TX                86  70  91  63 /  50  20  10  30
Pampa TX                   88  70  92  63 /  50  20  10  50
Shamrock TX                93  74  99  66 /  50  20  20  40
Wellington TX              97  76 100  68 /  50  20  20  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15