577
FXUS64 KAMA 031725
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northeast
across west Texas this morning. These showers and storms will
continue to move across portions of the Panhandles through the
morning into the afternoon hours. Severe weather is not expected
with the showers and storms through at least early afternoon. The
severe threat for today will be quite limited to any storms moving
in from the west later today. Even with that being said, cloud
cover and these showers will limit daytime heating which should
limit or even inhibit the severe potential later today. Adjusted
PoPs based on latest radar and hi-res trends as well as decreased
high temperatures for today with cloud cover and showers remaining
over the region.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The cold front that made it through the southern Texas Panhandle
earlier tonight is expected to stall and dissipate today.  This will
allow southerly moist low level flow to move back across the
Panhandles today.  This moisture coupled with a couple of
disturbances aloft should be enough to continue to fire showers and
thunderstorms through tonight. Some of the storms may become severe
with damaging winds the main threat.  However, a hailstone to the
size of a half dollar would not be out of the question.

On the 4th of July, a stronger cold front is expected to move
through the Panhandles during the late morning and afternoon.  Some
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the southeast
Texas Panhandle in the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the
front.  Shower and thunderstorm development is expected to increase
after midnight of the 4th into the 5th as an upper level disturbance
approaches in the northwest flow aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The northwest flow aloft is expected to continue through Tuesday of
next week with a high centered over California and Nevada and a
trough centered over the Great Lakes.  This flow coupled with weak
disturbances will continue to bring daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the Panhandles.  The northwest flow will also usher
in another cold front on Sunday.  High temperatures are expected to
generally remain below normal from Friday through next Tuesday.
However, Sunday could be just a tad above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals. Winds around 10 kts
out of mainly the south to southeast are forecast at the sites
until a cold front moves down the Plains tonight. Winds behind the
front will switch to out of the north with gusts upwards of 25 to
30 kts. Rain showers will continue today at KAMA for a few hours.
Additional showers or storms are possible at KDHT/KGUY after 00z,
confidence is not high enough to mention at KDHT, but have
included VCTS at KGUY for best timing.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70  93  65  84 /  20  10  50  30
Beaver OK                  67  87  61  85 /  30  10  30  10
Boise City OK              62  84  58  81 /  30   0  40  20
Borger TX                  72  95  65  88 /  20  10  50  30
Boys Ranch TX              67  93  63  84 /  20   0  50  30
Canyon TX                  69  93  63  82 /  20  10  50  40
Clarendon TX               72  96  65  83 /  20  20  40  30
Dalhart TX                 63  88  59  82 /  30   0  40  20
Guymon OK                  64  86  59  84 /  30   0  40  20
Hereford TX                70  95  65  83 /  20  10  50  30
Lipscomb TX                70  91  63  85 /  20  10  30  10
Pampa TX                   70  92  63  84 /  20  10  50  30
Shamrock TX                74  99  66  87 /  20  20  40  30
Wellington TX              76 100  68  88 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...05