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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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851 FXUS64 KAMA 071136 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 636 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Another active night looking at the radar across the High Plains. This activity is in relation to a shortwave that moved across Kansas this evening and sent a MCS diving south earlier this evening toward central Oklahoma and the influence of a 35-40kt low level jet across the region. This has combined with moisture characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints observed across the region to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms. This activity has remained mostly to the north and east of the Panhandles, but there has been some activity affecting mostly Beaver County, Oklahoma. Through the remainder of the morning, I would expect this to continue to be the case with continued movement toward the east. The bulk of today should be rather dry as the morning activity pushes east and there are no discernible shortwaves moving through the region early. With south to southwest winds present across the region, this should allow for low level temperatures to really increase today with readings ranging from 25C in the northeast to 34C in the southwest. This will equate to afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s in the north to the mid 90s in the south. By this afternoon, roughly around 18-21Z, some additional convection should begin to develop especially across the southeast and eastern Panhandles. This is a result of increased heating and the lingering outflow from this morning`s convection. Hi-res model output also agrees with this scenario and convection especially becoming more robust by 21-00Z. With ML/MUCAPE in excess of 1600-2000 J/kg, mid level lapse rates of around 7-8C/km, 40kts of deep layer shear and 500mb temperatures of around -7 to -9C, ingredients will be in place for strong to severe thunderstorms. Initially these would be in the form of supercells before congealing more into a QLCS as it progresses east into Oklahoma, enhanced by the effects of the developing low level jet. The main concerns will be large hail up to golfball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70mph. A much lesser concern would be a tornado but given enough shear, and the presence of boundaries in the region, if a storm can become better rooted on a boundary, I won`t say that it won`t be possible but the chances are very low(less than 5%). This won`t be our last round of showers and storms, however, as another round of activity should move across the entire Panhandles late night into the overnight hours and continue into early Monday morning. This looks to be more associated with the frontal passage as it drops south into the region and the upper trough digs further south as well. Of another concern will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding concerns. Dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s, especially in the east and southeast Texas Panhandle. Moisture transport into the region will be adequate with magnitudes around 100-132 ktsg/kg and there is plenty of 700mb theta-e advection(around 345K) across the region, particularly in the southeast Panhandle. Given the rainfall from Friday morning produced amounts of 2 to 6 inches in portions of the southeast Texas Panhandle, there is some greater concern for additional storms, especially multiple rounds, to produce localized flooding. In addition to the slight risk ERO we are in for that area, we also opted for a Flood Watch for excessive rainfall. This will run from this afternoon through Monday afternoon for a few counties along the state line. Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches will be possible. Once the convection moves through the region Monday, conditions will begin to dry out for the remainder of the short term. Highs on Monday, given clouds and rain, should be in the 70s and lower 80s. It is possible that some locations may not break out of the 70s all day. Culin && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 As the upper trough digs further south into northern Texas, it will scoop up the landfalling tropical cyclone Beryl late Monday into Tuesday. Northerly flow remains across the Panhandles through early Tuesday, resulting in pleasant and drier conditions. THe upper trough will begin to eject out to the east and southerly flow will return for Tuesday afternoon through the remainder of the forecast period. Heights gradually rise from the west across the area and this will result in gradually increasing temperatures through the week. The 90s will return through the week and it looks possible that we might see a return to the mid and upper 90s, possibly near 100 for some locations, by next weekend. Drier conditions are in place and no huge chances for rain are in the future, only perhaps a slight chance here or there during the afternoons. Culin && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions are prevailing at KAMA and KDHT but a mixture of MVFR and VFR categories at KGUY. Much of the storm activity will remain east of TAF sites this morning despite a brief higher wind gust of 48kts at KGUY from an outflow boundary. Storms are expected to develop after 18-21Z, and potentially bring severe weather. Thinking is that this should remain to the east of all sites, but KAMA may be impacted should storms initiate further west than anticipated. Did not mention this in the forecast for now but will be monitored. Another round of storms will push should through the Panhandles tonight, after 06-08Z and should impact all TAF sites through 12Z. Initial timing of storms should affect KGUY and KDHT from about 08Z-11Z for storms with lingering rain until 15Z. For KAMA, storms are more likely around 09-13Z, with lingering rain until 18Z. Prob30s have been added to all sites and more detail should occur in future TAF cycles. Culin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 93 62 77 59 / 20 70 60 30 Beaver OK 83 60 82 58 / 50 50 20 10 Boise City OK 83 57 79 55 / 10 50 20 10 Borger TX 96 65 84 60 / 30 70 50 20 Boys Ranch TX 94 62 80 58 / 0 70 40 20 Canyon TX 94 61 76 57 / 20 70 60 30 Clarendon TX 95 62 78 60 / 50 70 70 30 Dalhart TX 87 59 80 54 / 0 60 30 10 Guymon OK 84 59 81 55 / 10 50 20 10 Hereford TX 96 62 78 57 / 10 60 60 30 Lipscomb TX 88 62 81 59 / 50 70 40 20 Pampa TX 92 62 79 59 / 40 70 50 30 Shamrock TX 94 63 81 60 / 50 80 60 30 Wellington TX 96 64 82 62 / 50 80 70 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday afternoon for TXZ010-014-015-019-020. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....28 AVIATION...28