518
FXUS64 KAMA 071749
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1249 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Another active night looking at the radar across the High Plains.
This activity is in relation to a shortwave that moved across Kansas
this evening and sent a MCS diving south earlier this evening toward
central Oklahoma and the influence of a 35-40kt low level jet across
the region. This has combined with moisture characterized by low to
mid 60s dewpoints observed across the region to produce numerous
showers and thunderstorms. This activity has remained mostly to the
north and east of the Panhandles, but there has been some activity
affecting mostly Beaver County, Oklahoma. Through the remainder of
the morning, I would expect this to continue to be the case with
continued movement toward the east.

The bulk of today should be rather dry as the morning activity
pushes east and there are no discernible shortwaves moving through
the region early. With south to southwest winds present across the
region, this should allow for low level temperatures to really
increase today with readings ranging from 25C in the northeast to
34C in the southwest. This will equate to afternoon highs in the
lower to mid 80s in the north to the mid 90s in the south.

By this afternoon, roughly around 18-21Z, some additional convection
should begin to develop especially across the southeast and eastern
Panhandles. This is a result of increased heating and the lingering
outflow from this morning`s convection. Hi-res model output also
agrees with this scenario and convection especially becoming more
robust by 21-00Z. With ML/MUCAPE in excess of 1600-2000 J/kg, mid
level lapse rates of around 7-8C/km, 40kts of deep layer shear and
500mb temperatures of around -7 to -9C, ingredients will be in place
for strong to severe thunderstorms. Initially these would be in the
form of supercells before congealing more into a QLCS as it
progresses east into Oklahoma, enhanced by the effects of the
developing low level jet. The main concerns will be large hail up to
golfball size and damaging wind gusts up to 70mph. A much lesser
concern would be a tornado but given enough shear, and the presence
of boundaries in the region, if a storm can become better rooted on
a boundary, I won`t say that it won`t be possible but the chances
are very low(less than 5%).

This won`t be our last round of showers and storms, however, as
another round of activity should move across the entire Panhandles
late night into the overnight hours and continue into early Monday
morning. This looks to be more associated with the frontal passage
as it drops south into the region and the upper trough digs further
south as well.

Of another concern will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall
resulting in flash flooding concerns. Dewpoints will be in the mid
to upper 60s, especially in the east and southeast Texas Panhandle.
Moisture transport into the region will be adequate with magnitudes
around 100-132 ktsg/kg and there is plenty of 700mb theta-e
advection(around 345K) across the region, particularly in the
southeast Panhandle. Given the rainfall from Friday morning produced
amounts of 2 to 6 inches in portions of the southeast Texas
Panhandle, there is some greater concern for additional storms,
especially multiple rounds, to produce localized flooding. In
addition to the slight risk ERO we are in for that area, we also
opted for a Flood Watch for excessive rainfall. This will run from
this afternoon through Monday afternoon for a few counties along the
state line. Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches will be possible.

Once the convection moves through the region Monday, conditions will
begin to dry out for the remainder of the short term. Highs on
Monday, given clouds and rain, should be in the 70s and lower 80s.
It is possible that some locations may not break out of the 70s all
day.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

As the upper trough digs further south into northern Texas, it will
scoop up the landfalling tropical cyclone Beryl late Monday into
Tuesday. Northerly flow remains across the Panhandles through early
Tuesday, resulting in pleasant and drier conditions. THe upper
trough will begin to eject out to the east and southerly flow will
return for Tuesday afternoon through the remainder of the forecast
period. Heights gradually rise from the west across the area and
this will result in gradually increasing temperatures through the
week. The 90s will return through the week and it looks possible
that we might see a return to the mid and upper 90s, possibly near
100 for some locations, by next weekend. Drier conditions are in
place and no huge chances for rain are in the future, only perhaps a
slight chance here or there during the afternoons.

Culin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions will start the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites.
Starting around 06Z through about 14-16Z, PROB30 grouop has been
introduced at all TAF sites for low vsbys and TSRA conditions
potential. MVFR cigs will then continue after the PROB30 group
ends, to the end of the TAF period. Winds will generally out of
the north and northeast at 10-20 kts.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  77  59  86 /  60  70  20  10
Beaver OK                  60  82  58  86 /  50  20   0   0
Boise City OK              57  79  55  85 /  60  20   0  10
Borger TX                  65  84  60  91 /  60  60  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              62  80  58  88 /  60  60  10  10
Canyon TX                  61  76  57  85 /  60  70  20  10
Clarendon TX               62  78  60  85 /  60  70  20  10
Dalhart TX                 59  80  54  87 /  50  40  10  10
Guymon OK                  59  81  55  87 /  50  20  10   0
Hereford TX                62  78  57  87 /  60  60  20  10
Lipscomb TX                62  81  59  87 /  70  50  10   0
Pampa TX                   62  79  59  85 /  60  60  10  10
Shamrock TX                63  81  60  88 /  70  70  20  10
Wellington TX              64  82  62  89 /  70  80  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for TXZ004-005-009-010-014-
     015-019-020.

OK...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...29