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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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226 FXUS64 KAMA 060917 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 417 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Light showers and a thunderstorm continue to affect portions of the western Panhandles this morning. Much of the activity has remained to the west in New Mexico, but they are now moving into the far western portions of Oldham and Deaf Smith counties and will continue to affect them for a few hours. The main concern with these will be locally heavy rainfall leading to potential for flooding. The upper trough remains centered just to our east, and this has allowed for the forecast area to be firmly placed under northwest flow aloft. Minor disturbances continue to move through the region in this upper level pattern and today should be no exception. The forecast for today is a little tricky as much of the guidance does not show convection developing today for most of the area. A few indicate that as storms develop off the New Mexico mountains, they should move to the east and affect portions of the Panhandles today. As we warm into the mid/upper 80s and around 90 degrees, it will be possible that some storms, particularly in the western Panhandles, could become strong to isolated severe in the area later this afternoon into this evening. The main concern with any of these storms would be damaging wind gusts as there remains around 1400 J/kg DCAPE. Hail is a secondary concern as steep mid-level lapse rates around 7C/km and shear of around 30-40kts will give the ability to sustain updrafts for quarter to half dollar size hail. These storms should move to the east and may linger into the late evening hours. Models continue to agree on a surface low developing much further to the north of the Panhandles in CO/KS/NE area and storms developing in this region. Hi-res model guidance shows this complex of storms slowly moving down toward the Panhandle during the overnight hours tonight. The bulk of the activity looks to affect central and eastern Oklahoma more but it won`t be out of the question for storms to clip the eastern Panhandles as they move south and east prior to daybreak Sunday. While instability should be much lower during this time of night, it won`t be out of the question that these may bring some locally gusty winds and heavier rainfall, thanks to continued moisture in place across the region. Any outflow produced by this morning MCS will interact with moisture present and temperatures reaching into the 90s on Sunday. This will help to generate additional afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms given 2600 J/kg MUCAPE, 40kts of deep layer shear, 7.5- 8C/km mid-level lapse rates all leading to potential for storm development in the eastern Panhandles. The main concern will be damaging winds and large hail though it won`t be out of the question entirely for a tornado to develop especially if it can be rooted along any boundary. THe bulk of this severe weather and heavy rainfall should be over more into Oklahoma but our eastern counties could see this potential as well. A front looks to also drop south overnight Sunday night and there could be some showers/storms in associated with this front. Culin && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 As we head into the new work week, the upper flow will remain about the same. The mid level upper trough will dig a little further south and most models are in agreement that it will pick up the landfalling tropical cyclone Beryl early in the week. This will scoot these systems off to the east but the overall longwave trough remains in the vicinity of the region, resulting in continued northwest flow aloft. Rain chances, albeit low for now, remain in the forecast each day. This continued pattern should keep our temperatures in check and around or sometimes below normal through much of the week. Culin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions are prevailing at all TAF sites and is expected to continue through tomorrow. Winds will be out of the south to south-southwest through tomorrow, with sustained speeds around 10-12kts and gusts up to 20kts during the afternoon. It is possible that KDHT could see a shower or storm overnight, but confidence is low enough to not include in the forecast at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 87 68 94 63 / 20 10 30 50 Beaver OK 89 63 80 59 / 0 60 50 50 Boise City OK 88 61 82 56 / 10 20 20 40 Borger TX 92 71 97 65 / 20 20 30 50 Boys Ranch TX 90 67 94 63 / 20 20 10 50 Canyon TX 86 66 94 61 / 20 10 20 50 Clarendon TX 85 68 94 63 / 10 10 40 60 Dalhart TX 88 62 87 58 / 20 20 10 40 Guymon OK 89 63 84 58 / 10 40 30 40 Hereford TX 89 66 96 63 / 20 20 10 40 Lipscomb TX 89 66 84 62 / 0 50 60 60 Pampa TX 87 67 92 62 / 20 20 40 60 Shamrock TX 88 68 94 64 / 0 10 50 60 Wellington TX 90 69 96 64 / 0 10 40 60 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....28 AVIATION...28