105
FXUS64 KAMA 061740
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Light showers and a thunderstorm continue to affect portions of the
western Panhandles this morning. Much of the activity has remained
to the west in New Mexico, but they are now moving into the far
western portions of Oldham and Deaf Smith counties and will
continue to affect them for a few hours. The main concern with
these will be locally heavy rainfall leading to potential for
flooding.

The upper trough remains centered just to our east, and this has
allowed for the forecast area to be firmly placed under northwest
flow aloft. Minor disturbances continue to move through the region
in this upper level pattern and today should be no exception. The
forecast for today is a little tricky as much of the guidance does
not show convection developing today for most of the area. A few
indicate that as storms develop off the New Mexico mountains, they
should move to the east and affect portions of the Panhandles today.
As we warm into the mid/upper 80s and around 90 degrees, it will be
possible that some storms, particularly in the western Panhandles,
could become strong to isolated severe in the area later this
afternoon into this evening. The main concern with any of these
storms would be damaging wind gusts as there remains around 1400
J/kg DCAPE. Hail is a secondary concern as steep mid-level lapse
rates around 7C/km and shear of around 30-40kts will give the
ability to sustain updrafts for quarter to half dollar size hail.
These storms should move to the east and may linger into the late
evening hours.

Models continue to agree on a surface low developing much further to
the north of the Panhandles in CO/KS/NE area and storms developing
in this region. Hi-res model guidance shows this complex of storms
slowly moving down toward the Panhandle during the overnight hours
tonight. The bulk of the activity looks to affect central and
eastern Oklahoma more but it won`t be out of the question for storms
to clip the eastern Panhandles as they move south and east prior to
daybreak Sunday. While instability should be much lower during this
time of night, it won`t be out of the question that these may bring
some locally gusty winds and heavier rainfall, thanks to continued
moisture in place across the region.

Any outflow produced by this morning MCS will interact with moisture
present and temperatures reaching into the 90s on Sunday. This will
help to generate additional afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms given 2600 J/kg MUCAPE, 40kts of deep layer shear, 7.5-
8C/km mid-level lapse rates all leading to potential for storm
development in the eastern Panhandles. The main concern will be
damaging winds and large hail though it won`t be out of the question
entirely for a tornado to develop especially if it can be rooted
along any boundary. THe bulk of this severe weather and heavy
rainfall should be over more into Oklahoma but our eastern counties
could see this potential as well. A front looks to also drop south
overnight Sunday night and there could be some showers/storms in
associated with this front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

As we head into the new work week, the upper flow will remain about
the same. The mid level upper trough will dig a little further south
and most models are in agreement that it will pick up the
landfalling tropical cyclone Beryl early in the week. This will
scoot these systems off to the east but the overall longwave trough
remains in the vicinity of the region, resulting in continued
northwest flow aloft. Rain chances, albeit low for now, remain in
the forecast each day. This continued pattern should keep our
temperatures in check and around or sometimes below normal through
much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

TAFs are VFR for the 18Z period. Confidence in thunderstorms at
the GUY site has diminished some, so no mentions can be made at
this time. However, if the situation changes, and the dynamics
become more favorable for thunderstorms and the GUY and even AMA
terminals, amendments could become nessesary. Generally breezy
winds from the southwest will be had at all sites for the next 24
hours.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  94  63  78 /  20  20  50  50
Beaver OK                  63  80  59  80 /  40  30  50  30
Boise City OK              61  82  56  79 /  20  10  40  30
Borger TX                  71  97  65  84 /  10  30  60  50
Boys Ranch TX              67  94  63  81 /  20  10  50  40
Canyon TX                  66  94  61  77 /  20  10  50  60
Clarendon TX               68  94  63  79 /  20  40  60  60
Dalhart TX                 62  87  58  80 /  10  10  40  30
Guymon OK                  63  84  58  81 /  20  20  50  30
Hereford TX                66  96  63  79 /  20  10  40  50
Lipscomb TX                66  84  62  81 /  30  50  70  40
Pampa TX                   67  92  62  79 /  10  40  60  60
Shamrock TX                68  94  64  81 /  10  50  70  60
Wellington TX              69  96  64  83 /  10  50  70  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...55