Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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982 FXUS64 KAMA 011956 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Hotter temperatures and storm chances continue through the short term period. Showers and storms are possible across the western Panhandles this afternoon and evening as storms move in from NM. Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will increase into the upper 90s and up over 100 degrees by peak heating. Additional showers and storms are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening with higher chances across the entire area. Some of the storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall all possible. Early this afternoon, visible satellite imagery shows cumulus developing across eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle. Further west, storms are starting to fire off of the higher terrain near Raton and are starting to slide off to the east/northeast. Additional showers and storms should form later on this afternoon into the evening hours as better lift provided by a shortwave trough moves across the western/northwestern portions of the CWA. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast for this area and activity should diminish by around midnight tonight. Storms are not expected to be severe today, but cannot rule out some moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall along with gusty winds. By Tuesday afternoon, the center of the H500 high pressure system should move off to the east leaving the Panhandles solidly in southwest to west flow aloft. Closer to the surface, southwest low level winds extending down to the surface should allow for stronger WAA during the daytime hours. Surface temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s for the west/northwest with just over 100 degrees elsewhere. With the southeast having the higher potential for air temperatures or heat index values at 105 or higher, have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for tomorrow afternoon which includes Palo Duro Canyon State Park. The main limiting factor for hotter temperatures further north will be a weak cold front moving down the Plains tomorrow afternoon and the front may make it to the northern Panhandles by late afternoon. Along and behind the front, another round of showers and storms are forecast to develop beginning tomorrow afternoon and continuing through Wednesday morning. Sufficient instability and shear look to be in place for a few storms to potentially become severe, with large hail up to half dollars and wind gusts up to 60 mph. The main concern may become heavy rain and flash flooding by Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. PWAT values are forecast to be above 1.5 inches across the Panhandles and storms may potentially train along a cold front as it sits across the region during this time frame. Will have to keep a close eye on model trends as guidance currently is not as favorable for heavy rain, but that could change if some of the high end outlier rainfall solutions come to fruition. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Typical summertime temperatures will continue through mid week across the Panhandles before a pattern change occurs and highs cool back down into the 80s and 90s Friday through this upcoming weekend. To the delight of all, daily chances for showers and storms will continue each day during this time frame. A subtle cooldown is forecast for Wednesday as the weak cold front ushers in a slightly cooler airmass across the region. Highs should range from the 80s north to mid to upper 90s south for high temperatures. Precipitation chances will continue throughout the day as moisture will still be prevalent across the area and PVA supplied by shortwaves embedded in the upper level flow should provide enough lift for at least isolated to scattered showers or storms. A few of the storms will have the potential to be severe on Wednesday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. For Independence Day, highs should be comparable to those on Wednesday. Another front is forecast to move over the region on Thursday afternoon. Current expectation is that the front may be delayed enough for temperatures to rise into the 90s to potentially 100 before cooling down behind the front. If the front comes in quicker, temperatures will need to be bumped down a few degrees over what is currently in the forecast. Behind the front, breezy north to northeast winds are expected along with slightly higher moisture. Wherever the front ends up being located as a subtle disturbance passes over the area, another round of showers and storms could be possible during the evening hours on Thursday. Will be keeping a close watch on this period as this could have impacts on outdoor activities on Independence Day evening. Going into Friday through this upcoming weekend, ridging will build across the western CONUS with troughing over the central US, keeping the Panhandles underneath west to northwest flow aloft. Highs on Friday should be the coolest of the upcoming 7 days before the temperatures slowly rise back up during the weekend. The daily chances for showers and storms looks to continue through this time period as disturbances should provide enough lift for storms to develop and move across portions of the area. Muscha && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Winds will continue to be gusty around 25-30kts out of the south to southwest. A few showers and storms could move into the western panhandles this evening and KGUY/KDHT would have the most impact should storms make it that far east. Included at least some mention of VCSH to account for this but additional amendments may be needed once convection initializes and more evidence of it affecting a TAF site occurs. Otherwise, winds should begin to diminish overnight before gusts occur again tomorrow. Culin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 76 101 72 94 / 0 30 50 30 Beaver OK 76 100 68 89 / 10 30 60 20 Boise City OK 68 92 63 87 / 30 30 40 30 Borger TX 78 105 74 97 / 10 30 60 30 Boys Ranch TX 74 101 71 94 / 10 30 50 30 Canyon TX 73 99 71 94 / 0 20 50 30 Clarendon TX 76 103 73 97 / 0 20 30 20 Dalhart TX 69 97 65 91 / 30 30 40 30 Guymon OK 71 97 66 90 / 20 30 60 20 Hereford TX 73 101 71 96 / 10 20 40 30 Lipscomb TX 78 102 70 93 / 0 30 60 20 Pampa TX 76 101 71 94 / 0 30 50 20 Shamrock TX 77 103 74 100 / 0 20 20 10 Wellington TX 76 105 75 101 / 0 20 20 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...28