Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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235 FXUS64 KAMA 020823 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 323 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A cold front was near the Arkansas River Valley early this morning. This front is expected to slip south across the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle late this morning into the afternoon. This front is expected to the focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible outside of the frontal zone as a southwest flow aloft continues to pump subtropical moisture over the Panhandles. There is a batch of showers pushing northeast from southern New Mexico early this morning. Would not surprised to see a shower or thunderstorm somewhere in our area from now through this evening. The best chance of severe thunderstorms looks to be in association with the frontal boundary as it will be closer to the better instability and shear. However, an isolated severe wind gust will be possible just about anywhere, especially given the hot temperatures today that will help to produce inverted "V" soundings. Will keep the heat advisory going for Palo Duro Canyon and the far southeast Texas Panhandle for today. However, we may have a tough time reaching criteria if we keep debris clouds around. The front is expected to remain in our area for Wednesday and it will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development once again. Highs are not expected to quite as warm on Wednesday given the slightly cooler air behind the front and the added cloud cover. && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A bit of uncertainty still revolves around the Fourth of July holiday as many models see another upper-level trough push another frontal boundary across the Panhandles that day. The timing of this front as well as were it stalls could result in heavy changes to both the possible activity and temperatures for the holiday. At this time, most model are settling for a late decent of the frontal boundary which will allow for temperatures to reach into the 90s and triple digits down in the southern portions of the Panhandles. This also will work to our benefit as well, as it will also delay storm development to later that night with most models not seeing decent chances (40 to 50%) for showers till after midnight. However, should the front arrive sooner than expected activity may be closer to the late evening to night hours. Secondary to this will also be the final placement of the front with latest trends seeing it settle just to our south around the Lubbock area. Unfortunately if this placement does come to pass, than our chances of showers will diminish for both Friday and Saturday afternoon with best odds now around 20 to 25%. Chances do look spread across the Panhandles Sunday and Monday as most model are in agreement for a secondary trough and front to follow. Expect this trough to exit Monday night with chances shifting more eastward through out the day. As for next Tuesday and the mid- week, there is still a bit of uncertainty, but current model runs do favor northwesterly flow that could open us up to active weather each afternoon. Otherwise, look for temperatures to fall briefly behind each passing front with temperatures dropping into the 80s Friday then rising back into the 90s by Sunday only to drop again Monday. Scoleri && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Southwest winds are expected to pick up into the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts by mid morning. A cold front will move through the GUY TAF site this afternoon switching the wind to the north and northeast at around 15 knots. The cold front will be very close to DHT by the end of this forecast. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front late this afternoon and evening, so have added a PROB30 group for GUY and DHT. Thunderstorms are expected to be more isolated toward AMA, so have left the mention of thunderstorms out for this site. Skies are expected to remain VFR outside of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 101 72 92 71 / 30 60 30 20 Beaver OK 99 67 86 67 / 30 70 40 20 Boise City OK 92 63 85 60 / 40 50 40 10 Borger TX 105 73 94 72 / 40 60 30 20 Boys Ranch TX 101 70 91 69 / 30 60 30 20 Canyon TX 99 71 91 69 / 30 50 30 20 Clarendon TX 103 73 96 74 / 30 40 20 20 Dalhart TX 97 66 89 62 / 30 50 30 20 Guymon OK 96 66 87 64 / 30 60 30 20 Hereford TX 101 71 93 70 / 30 50 30 20 Lipscomb TX 102 70 87 71 / 40 70 30 20 Pampa TX 101 71 91 70 / 40 60 30 20 Shamrock TX 102 73 99 75 / 10 30 20 10 Wellington TX 105 75 101 77 / 10 30 20 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...15