Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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437 FXUS64 KAMA 021739 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1239 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Mid level clouds continue to move across the central and western Panhandles this morning. These clouds are remaining in tact due to a subtle mid level low pressure system moving over the region this morning. Previous model guidance did not indicate this cloud deck moving across so have increased cloud coverage through the day. These clouds could play an impact on high temperatures for today depending upon how long they remain over the area. The cold front is currently through the western half of the OK Panhandle and the far northwestern TX Panhandle. This is a bit earlier than expected so have blended in some of the new hi-res guidance that has a better grasp on the location of the front. Will be keeping a close eye on where the front ends up stalling this afternoon as this will be the focal area for the stronger storms today and any potential training storms. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A cold front was near the Arkansas River Valley early this morning. This front is expected to slip south across the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle late this morning into the afternoon. This front is expected to the focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible outside of the frontal zone as a southwest flow aloft continues to pump subtropical moisture over the Panhandles. There is a batch of showers pushing northeast from southern New Mexico early this morning. Would not surprised to see a shower or thunderstorm somewhere in our area from now through this evening. The best chance of severe thunderstorms looks to be in association with the frontal boundary as it will be closer to the better instability and shear. However, an isolated severe wind gust will be possible just about anywhere, especially given the hot temperatures today that will help to produce inverted "V" soundings. Will keep the heat advisory going for Palo Duro Canyon and the far southeast Texas Panhandle for today. However, we may have a tough time reaching criteria if we keep debris clouds around. The front is expected to remain in our area for Wednesday and it will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development once again. Highs are not expected to quite as warm on Wednesday given the slightly cooler air behind the front and the added cloud cover. && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 A bit of uncertainty still revolves around the Fourth of July holiday as many models see another upper-level trough push another frontal boundary across the Panhandles that day. The timing of this front as well as were it stalls could result in heavy changes to both the possible activity and temperatures for the holiday. At this time, most model are settling for a late decent of the frontal boundary which will allow for temperatures to reach into the 90s and triple digits down in the southern portions of the Panhandles. This also will work to our benefit as well, as it will also delay storm development to later that night with most models not seeing decent chances (40 to 50%) for showers till after midnight. However, should the front arrive sooner than expected activity may be closer to the late evening to night hours. Secondary to this will also be the final placement of the front with latest trends seeing it settle just to our south around the Lubbock area. Unfortunately if this placement does come to pass, than our chances of showers will diminish for both Friday and Saturday afternoon with best odds now around 20 to 25%. Chances do look spread across the Panhandles Sunday and Monday as most model are in agreement for a secondary trough and front to follow. Expect this trough to exit Monday night with chances shifting more eastward through out the day. As for next Tuesday and the mid- week, there is still a bit of uncertainty, but current model runs do favor northwesterly flow that could open us up to active weather each afternoon. Otherwise, look for temperatures to fall briefly behind each passing front with temperatures dropping into the 80s Friday then rising back into the 90s by Sunday only to drop again Monday. Scoleri && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions continue to prevail this afternoon into this evening. Winds are out of the southwest around 15-20kts gusting to 30kts this afternoon. The main concerns will be whether showers and storms affect TAF locations. Model guidance has delayed the onset of storms this afternoon and evening and they may hold off until closer to 23-00Z, especially for Dalhart and Guymon. Current thinking remains that storms should develop and potentially affect these sites from 00z-07z. Have kept mention of VCSH in the TAF during this time and adjustments may need to be made. KAMA is a little less certain but could see some showers/storms perhaps closer to midnight, but left out mention in the TAFs for now. Culin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 72 92 71 97 / 60 30 20 10 Beaver OK 67 86 67 91 / 70 40 20 0 Boise City OK 63 85 60 87 / 50 40 10 0 Borger TX 73 94 72 100 / 60 30 20 0 Boys Ranch TX 70 91 69 98 / 60 30 20 0 Canyon TX 71 91 69 97 / 50 30 20 10 Clarendon TX 73 96 74 98 / 40 20 20 10 Dalhart TX 66 89 62 92 / 50 30 20 0 Guymon OK 66 87 64 89 / 60 30 20 0 Hereford TX 71 93 70 98 / 50 30 20 10 Lipscomb TX 70 87 71 96 / 70 30 20 10 Pampa TX 71 91 70 96 / 60 30 20 10 Shamrock TX 73 99 75 101 / 30 20 10 10 Wellington TX 75 101 77 103 / 30 20 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...28