Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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724 FXUS64 KAMA 071842 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 142 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 It is July in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle. So you know what that means: boundaries, boundaries, and more boundaries! In this case, as of the latest 18Z obs, we have a cold front moving south-southwest into the northeast combined Panhandles. We also have an outflow boundary from convection in south central Oklahoma moving west-northwest into towards the SE TX Panhandle, and we then have a third, and more subtle sfc boundary across the western TX Panhandle, leftover from thunderstorms earlier this morning. Through this afternoon and towards midnight tonight, these aforementioned boundaries may cause strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. Latest hi-res CAM`s and short range 12Z model data are not quite in an accord of output. LL shear sub 6 km is quite anemic in the latest HRRR/RAP analysis through 00Z tonight across the board. As a result, lift from the series of boundaries in the area will have to help storms reach convection initiation as overall buoyancy alone will not suffice. Best low level moisture content is in the SE TX Panhandle, along with best diurnal heating and no antecedent rainfall from earlier this morning, the highest probability of severe storms should be in this area before midnight tonight. Cannot rule out areas along and ahead of the front as it moves south, or the subtle sfc boundary in the western TX Panhandle, but the highest chances of a severe thunderstorms before midnight is in the southeast Texas Panhandle. Pronounced H850-700 theta-e advection, coupled with effective shear >= 40 kts, along with MLCAPE/SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will support severe thunderstorms, especially in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. If cold front and westward moving boundary from central Oklahoma collide in the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity, this could definitely aid in thunderstorm development further with areas of lift aiding the environment for lift. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats for severe weather, along with the possibility of flooding, especially in the eastern Panhandles with slow moving thunderstorms, as well as PWAt values near 1.5" in some locations. Plenty of low level moisture in the atmosphere. Looking past midnight tonight, latest model and numerical data shows a more organized line of convection developing along the front range of the Rockies which may provide our best rain chances for the Panhandles within the first 24 hours of this forecast. This would support a secondary area of severe thunderstorms favoring the central and western Panhandles for a severe thunderstorm threat of damaging winds and localized flooding. A perturbation across the central Rockies with upslope flow will congeal discrete cells on the front range into a line of storms moving southeast in the combined Panhandle during the overnight hours tonight. Probabilities of severe criteria storms reaching the I-40 corridor is lower than further north near the source of the original storms, along with steering flow being a bit stronger closer to the mountains. But cannot rule out a severe storm anywhere in the Panhandles from midnight tonight through sunrise tomorrow morning. Residual outflow boundaries will move south and further push the main cold front south as well. So going throughout the day tomorrow, rain chances should decrease from north to south. Another quite cool topic to talk about is how nice the temperatures will be behind the passing cold front for tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70s for most areas, a nice change of pace for July. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range in the 50s across the area. Looking at DESI probs, there even is around a 10% chance that portions of the western combined Panhandles may see low temperatures in the upper 40s. Quite refreshing from our normal July heat in the Panhandles. Meccariello && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Mid to long range models indicate that the upper level pattern will change near the start of the extended period. The 500 mb trough should de-amplify and transition towards the northeast CONUS. Meanwhile, upper level ridging overspreads from the west and high pressure builds over much of the CONUS. Here on the High Plains, monsoonal moisture will taper off as our upper level flow turns from northwesterly to northerly. A steady increase with heights aloft will also result in a steady increase in surface temperatures through next week. Southerly surface winds will take over across the CWA, aiding in warm air advection. Tuesday should see highs in the 80`s and they will rise into the 90`s for the rest of the week. A few isolated hot spots may even reach 100 degrees this week like the Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon. Chances for thunderstorms should also greatly decrease. Initially, for Tuesday and Wednesday, better thunderstorms probs are restricted to the far western Panhandle. Afterwards, isolated afternoon convection cannot be ruled out in certain portions of the CWA as the week progresses, but the confidence this far out in time is extremely low to add mentionable PoPs and the coverage is expected to be quite limited. Rangel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions will start the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Starting around 06Z through about 14-16Z, PROB30 group has been introduced at all TAF sites for low vsbys and TSRA conditions potential. MVFR cigs will then continue after the PROB30 group ends, to the end of the TAF period. Winds will generally out of the north and northeast at 10-20 kts. Meccariello && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 62 77 57 85 / 60 70 20 10 Beaver OK 61 79 55 86 / 50 20 0 0 Boise City OK 57 77 53 85 / 60 20 0 10 Borger TX 64 82 58 91 / 60 60 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 62 79 55 88 / 60 60 10 10 Canyon TX 61 75 56 84 / 60 70 20 10 Clarendon TX 62 76 59 85 / 60 70 20 10 Dalhart TX 59 78 52 87 / 50 40 10 10 Guymon OK 59 79 53 87 / 50 20 10 0 Hereford TX 62 77 57 87 / 60 60 20 10 Lipscomb TX 62 79 56 86 / 70 50 10 0 Pampa TX 61 77 57 85 / 60 60 10 0 Shamrock TX 63 79 60 87 / 70 70 20 10 Wellington TX 64 80 59 89 / 70 80 20 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for TXZ004-005-009-010-014- 015-019-020. OK...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for OKZ003. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...29